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The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence and Theory

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Angelo Melino

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Abstract

The term structure of interest rates is an old topic. Over the years, both the hypotheses debated and the research techniques used have changed considerably. Two fairly recent developments which distinguish current research are the widespread adoption of rational expectations and the integration of the term structure with the general theory of asset pricing. This survey reviews previous work from this perspective. The main objective is to catalog available evidence about term premia and to interpret this evidence in light of alternative models of term premia determination.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1828.

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Date of creation: Feb 1986
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1828

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  1. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Konstantijn Maes, 2004. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Where Do We Stand?," Research series 200402, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1990. "Do Stationary Risk Premia Explain It All? Evidence from the Term Struct," NBER Working Papers 3451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. James E. Pesando & Andre Plourde, 1986. "The October 1979 Change in the Monetary Regime: Its Impact on the "Forecastability" of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Abel Mayeyenda, 1997. "Détermination de la structure des taux d'intérêt : Une analyse empirique," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 49, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ravenna , Federico & Seppälä , Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1988. "Time-Varying Risk Perceptions and the Pricing of Risky Assets," NBER Working Papers 2694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Juha Ilmari Seppala, 2000. "The Term Structure of Real Interest Rates: Theory and Evidence from the U.K. Index-Linked Bonds," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0245, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi & Leora Klapper, 1997. "Interest Rate Targeting and the Dynamics of Short-Term Rates," NBER Working Papers 5944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Keith Cuthbertson & Don Bredin, 2000. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure - The Case of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 267-281. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Les Oxley & Marco Reale & Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson, 2008. "Constructing Structural VAR Models with Conditional Independence Graphs," Working Papers in Economics 08/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bams, Dennis & Wolff, Christian C, 2000. "Risk Premia In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A Panel Data Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 2392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Anonymous, 1993. "Expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 56, December. [Downloadable!]
  14. Petko S. Kalev & Brett A. Inder, 2006. "The information content of the term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 33-45, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Chikashi Tsuji, 2005. "Are investors rational in international bond markets?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 169-175, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Chung-Hua Shen, 1998. "The Term Structure Of Taiwan Money Market Rates And Rational Expectation," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 105-119, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Chris Downing & Stephen Oliner, 2004. "The term structure of commercial paper rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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