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Will the New Keynesian Macroeconomics Resurrect the IS-LM Model?

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  • Robert G. King

Abstract

The IS-LM model has no greater prospect of being a viable analytical vehicle for macroeconomics in the 1990s than the Ford Pinto has of being a sporty, reliable car for the 1990s. Because of its treatment of expectations, the IS-LM model, as traditionally constructed and currently used, is a hazardous base on which to build positive theories of business fluctuations and to undertake policy analysis. To simplify economic reality sufficiently to use the IS-LM model as an analytical tool, economists must essentially ignore expectations; we now know that this simplification eliminates key determinants of aggregate demand. The last two decades of research have taught economists that the assumption of rational expectations is a powerful part of economic explanations of individual and market behavior, ranging from consumption and investment dynamics to pricing of stocks and bonds. The emphasis on expectations in the macro-model is the end result of a process of building microeconomic underpinnings that was initiated in the 1950s and 1960s, when the goal was to develop dynamic theoretical foundations for the IS and LM schedules; inevitably, consideration of dynamic choice pushed the question of expectations to the forefront. As a result, most of the equations of the IS-LM model are now viewed as summarizing purposeful economic behavior in which choices over time play a central role. However, as we will see, this finding means there is no way to maintain traditional uses of the IS-LM model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 7 (1993)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
Pages: 67-82

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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:7:y:1993:i:1:p:67-82

Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.7.1.67
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  1. Milton Friedman, 1959. "The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67, pages 327.
  2. Abel, Andrew B., 1982. "Dynamic effects of permanent and temporary tax policies in a q model of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 353-373.
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Cited by:
  1. Alejandro Rodríguez, 2012. "Is it Possible to Go Back to Ad Hoc Macroeconomic Models? The Case of the Romer- Taylor Model," Working Papers 0312, Universidad Iberoamericana, Department of Economics.
  2. Juan Luís Ollero & Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriñach-Caralt, 2001. "Macroeconomic implications of EMU at the regional level," ERSA conference papers ersa01p146, European Regional Science Association.
  3. León Díaz, John Jairo, 2007. "Keynesianismo, Poskeynesianismo y Nuevokeynesianismo: ¿Tres doctrinas diferentes y una sóla teoría verdadera?
    [Keynesianism, PostKeynesianism and Newkeynesianism: ¿Three different doctrines jus
    ," MPRA Paper 4600, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
  4. Raul Ramos & Miquel Clar & Jordi Surinach, 2003. "A dynamic analysis of asymmetric shocks in EU manufacturing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 881-892.
  5. Kamelia Assenova, 2013. "Effectiveness of Specific Monetary Policy by the Currency Board," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 325-334, November.
  6. Michel, DE VROEY, 2004. "The History of Macroeconomics Viewed Against the Background of the Marshall-Walras Divide," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  7. Evan F. Koenig, 2008. "Keynesian economics without the LM and IS curves: a dynamic generalization of the Taylor-Romer model," Working Papers 0813, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  8. Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont, 2014. "Mr. Keynes, Prof. Krugman, IS-LM, and the End of Economics as We Know It," MPRA Paper 53608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, . "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," GSIA Working Papers 1997-71, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  10. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims, 1994. "Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 81-140 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Carlos Borondo, 1994. "La rigidez nominal de los precios de la Nueva Economía Keynesiana: una panorámica," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 18(2), pages 245-288, May.
  12. Evan F. Koenig, 1993. "Rethinking the IS in IS-LM: adapting Keynesian tools to non-Keynesian economies Part 2," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Dec, pages 17-35.
  13. Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont, 2014. "The Truly General Theory of Employment: How Keynes Could Have Succeeded," MPRA Paper 54367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Lai, Ching-chong & Fang, Chung-rou, 2012. "Is the honeymoon effect valid in the presence of both exchange rate and output expectations? A graphical analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 140-146.
  15. William Kerr & Robert G. King, 1996. "Limits on interest rate rules in the IS model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 47-75.

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