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The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve

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  • Mankiw, N Gregory
  • Miron, Jeffrey A
  • Weil, David N

Abstract

The founding of the Federal Reserve System in 1914 led to a substantial change in the behavior of nominal interest rates. The authors examine the timing of this change and the speed with which it was effected. They then use data on the term structure of interest rates to determine how expectations responded. Their results indicate that the change in policy regime was rapid and that individuals quickly understood the new environment they were facing. Copyright 1987 by American Economic Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 77 (1987)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 358-74

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:77:y:1987:i:3:p:358-74

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  1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1985. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John Huizinga & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and the Unusual Behavior of Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "The Lucas Critique and the Volcker Deflation," NBER Working Papers 1326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
  5. Clark, Truman A, 1986. "Interest Rate Seasonals and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 76-125, February.
  6. Holbert, Donald, 1982. "A Bayesian analysis of a switching linear model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 77-87, May.
  7. Robert J. Shiller, 1979. "Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?," NBER Working Papers 0348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
  9. Taylor, John B, 1975. "Monetary Policy during a Transition to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(5), pages 1009-21, October.
  10. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1979. "Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of `rational expectations' macromodels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 23-41, January.
  11. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  12. Richard H. Clarida & Benjamin M. Friedman, 1983. "Why Have Short-Term Interest Rates Been So High?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(2), pages 553-586.
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