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The worldwide change in the behavior of interest rates and prices in 1914

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  • Barsky, Robert B.
  • Mankiw, N. Gregory
  • Miron, Jeffrey A.
  • Weill, David N.

Abstract

This paper evaluates the role of the destruction of the gold standard and the founding of the Federal Reserve, both of which occurred in 1914, in contributing to observed changes in the behavior of interest rates and prices after 1914. The paper presents a model of policy coordination in which the introduction of the Fed stabilizes interest rates, even if the gold standard remains intact, and it offers empirical evidence that the dismantling of the gold standard did not play a crucial role in precipitating the changes in interest rate behavior.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 32 (1988)
Issue (Month): 5 (June)
Pages: 1123-1147

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:32:y:1988:i:5:p:1123-1147

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer

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References

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  1. Clark, Truman A, 1986. "Interest Rate Seasonals and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 76-125, February.
  2. Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-28, May.
  3. Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A & Weil, David N, 1987. "The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 358-74, June.
  4. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1984. "A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord84-1, octubre-d.
  5. Timberlake, Richard H, Jr, 1984. "The Central Banking Role of Clearinghouse Associations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, February.
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 61-110.
  7. Barsky, Robert B., 1987. "The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January.
  8. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  9. Robert J. Shiller, 1979. "Can the Fed Control Real Interest Rates?," NBER Working Papers 0348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Miron, Jeffrey A, 1986. "Financial Panics, the Seasonality of the Nominal Interest Rate, and theFounding of the Fed," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 125-40, March.
  11. Shiller, Robert J & Siegel, Jeremy J, 1977. "The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 891-907, October.
  12. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Interest-Rate Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 2581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  14. Oskar Morgenstern, 1959. "International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number morg59-1, octubre-d.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Eugene N. White, 2013. "Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Goodfriend, M. & King, R.G., 1988. "Financial Deregulation, Monetary Policy, And Central Banking," RCER Working Papers 121, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  3. Eugene N. White, 2011. "“To Establish a More Effective Supervision of Banking”: How the Birth of the Fed Altered Bank Supervision," NBER Working Papers 16825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Joseph H. Davis & Christopher Hanes & Paul W. Rhode, 2009. "Harvests and Business Cycles in Nineteenth-Century America," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1675-1727, November.
  5. Santos, Joseph, 2003. "Commodity futures contracts: Furnishing an elastic currency in the nineteenth century," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 561-578, December.
  6. William D. Craighead & Pao-Lin Tien, 2013. "Nominal Shocks and Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Two Centuries," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2013-002, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  7. Wen, Yi, 1999. "The Business Cycle Effects of Seasonal Shocks," Working Papers 00-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.

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