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Moving endpoints and the internal consistency of agents' ex ante forecasts

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  • Sharon Kozicki
  • P.A. Tinsley

Abstract

Forecasts by rational agents contain embedded initial and terminal boundary conditions. Standard time series models generate two types of long-run "endpoints"--fixed endpoints and moving average endpoints. Neither can explain the shifting endpoints implied by postwar movements in the cross-section of forward rate forecasts in the term structure or by post-1979 changes in survey estimates of expected inflation. Multiperiod forecasts by a broader class of "moving endpoint" time series models provide substantially improved tracking of the historical term structure and generally support the internal consistency of the ex ante long-run expectations of bond traders and survey respondents.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number 97-01.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:97-01

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Postal: 1 Memorial Drive, Kansas City, MO 64198-0001
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Web page: http://www.kansascityfed.org/
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Keywords: Forecasting ; Time-series analysis;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Antulio N. Bomfim & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Christopher F. Baum & Meral Karasulu, 1997. "Credible Disinflation Policy in a Dynamic Setting," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 375, Boston College Department of Economics.
  3. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada.
  4. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2002. "Alternative sources of the lag dynamics of inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 02-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  5. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Eric Jondeau & Franck Sédillot, 1999. "Forecasting French and German long-term rates using a rational expectations model," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 413-436, September.
  7. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2002. "Dynamic specifications in optimizing trend-deviation macro models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1585-1611, August.
  8. Rautureau, Nicolas, 2004. "Measuring the long-term perception of monetary policy and the term structure," Research Discussion Papers 12/2004, Bank of Finland.
  9. Sharon Kozicki & P.A.Tinsley, 2001. "What do you expect? : imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis?," Research Working Paper RWP 01-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  10. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  11. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Implications of real-time data for forecasting and modeling expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 01-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  12. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Term structure views of monetary policy under alternative models of agent expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 149-184, January.
  13. P. A. Tinsley, 1998. "Short rate expectations, term premiums, and central bank use of derivatives to reduce policy uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  15. Jondeau, E. & Sedillot, F., 1998. "La prevision des taux longs français et allemands a partir d'un modele a anticipations rationnelles," Working papers 55, Banque de France.

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