New Evidence Concerning the Expectations Theory for the Short End of the Maturity Spectrum
AbstractThis paper reexamines the evidence rejecting the expectations theory of the term structure. Weakly, monthly, and quarterly data on three- and six-month interest rates are employed for five subperiods--1910-1914, 1919-1933, 1934-59, 1959-78, and 1979-89. Econometric techniques are used to correct standard errors for overlapping data and for heteroscedasticity. Findings indicate that the weekly and monthly data are consistent with a weak form of the expectations hypothesis in which the yield curve has substantial predictive were for short rates for each subperiod except 1934-59 and 1979-89. Results for the period before the founding of the Federal Reserve indicate that a strong version of the expectations hypothesis cannot be rejected in which the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and expectations theory is hypothesized. The use of cointegration tests and an error-correction model framework to determine whether short and long rates have a common stochastic trend indicates that long and short rates are cointegrated.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association in its journal Journal of Financial Research.
Volume (Year): 14 (1991)
Issue (Month): 1 (Spring)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0270-2592
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Chiang, Thomas C. & Chiang, Jeanette Jin, 1995. "Emperical analysis of short-term eurocurrency rates: Evidence from a transfer function error correction model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 335-351, October.
- Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P A, 1998.
"Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts,"
Society for Computational Economics, vol. 11(1-2), pages 21-40, April.
- Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1997. "Moving endpoints and the internal consistency of agents' ex ante forecasts," Research Working Paper 97-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1996. "Moving endpoints and the internal consistency of agents' ex ante forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 1997.
"Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates,"
Research Working Paper
97-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June.
- Chiang, Thomas C., 1997. "Time series dynamics of short-term interest rates: evidence from Eurocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 201-220, October.
- Nourzad, Farrokh & Scott Grennier, R., 1995. "Cointegration analysis of the expectations theory of the term structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 281-292, August.
- Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, . "Moving Endpoints in Macrofinance," Computing in Economics and Finance 1996 _058, Society for Computational Economics.
- Ross Guest & Alan McLean, 1998. "New evidence on the expectations theory of the term structure of Australian Commonwealth Government Treasury yields," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 81-87.
- Ravenna , Federico & Seppälä , Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
- Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Direct tests of the expectations theory of the term structure: Survey expectations, the term premium and coefficient biases," MPRA Paper 19815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael Dotsey & Christopher Otrok, 1995. "The rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure, monetary policy, and time-varying term premia," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 65-81.
- Shively, Philip A., 2005. "Threshold nonlinear interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 313-317, September.
- Chiang, Thomas C. & Kim, Doseong, 2000. "Short-term eurocurrency rate behavior and specifications of cointegrating processes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 157-179.
- Azar, Samih Antoine, 2010. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis on Corporate Bond Yields," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 6(1-2).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.