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Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts

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Author Info
Kozicki, Sharon
Tinsley, P A

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Abstract

Forecasts by rational agents contain embedded initial and terminal boundary conditions. Standard time series models generate two types of long-run boundary values or steady-state "endpoints"--fixed endpoints and moving average endpoints. Neither can explain the shifting endpoints implied by postwar movements in the cross-section of forward rate forecasts in the term structure or by post-l979 changes in survey estimates of expected long-run inflation. Multiperiod forecasts by a broader class of "moving endpoint" time series models provide substantially improved tracking of the historical term structure and generally support the internal consistency of the ex ante long-run expectations of bond traders and survey respondents. Citation Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Computational Economics.

Volume (Year): 11 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (April)
Pages: 21-40
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Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:11:y:1998:i:1-2:p:21-40

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-66, July.
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  11. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Mougoue, Mbodja, 1992. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates as a Cointegrated System: Empirical Evidence from the Eurocurrency Market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association and Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 285-96, Fall.
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  19. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christopher F. Baum & Meral Karasulu, 1997. "Credible Disinflation Policy in a Dynamic Setting," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 375, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Peter Tinsley & Sharon Kozicki, 2003. "Alternative Sources of the Lag Dynamics of Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 92, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. P. A. Tinsley, 1998. "Short rate expectations, term premiums, and central bank use of derivatives to reduce policy uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Antulio N. Bomfim & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1997. "Opportunistic and deliberate disinflation under imperfect credibility," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory and Econometrics 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jondeau, E. & Sedillot, F., 1998. "La prevision des taux longs français et allemands a partir d'un modele a anticipations rationnelles," Documents de Travail 55, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  8. Sharon Kozicki & P.A.Tinsley, 2001. "What do you expect? : imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis?," Research Working Paper RWP 01-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  10. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2001. "Dynamic specifications in optimizing trend-deviation macro models," Research Working Paper RWP 01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Eric Jondeau & Franck Sédillot, 1999. "Forecasting French and German long-term rates using a rational expectations model," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 413-436, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  13. Rautureau, Nicolas, 2004. "Measuring the long-term perception of monetary policy and the term structure," Research Discussion Papers 12/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  14. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Implications of real-time data for forecasting and modeling expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 01-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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