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Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time

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Author Info
Clark, Todd E.
Kozicki, Sharon

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Abstract

We use a range of simple models and 22 years of real-time data vintages for the U.S. to assess the difficulties of estimating the equilibrium real interest rate in real time. Model specifications differ according to whether the time-varying equilibrium real rate is linked to trend growth, and whether potential output and growth are defined by the CBO?s estimates or treated as unobserved variables. Our results reveal a high degree of specification uncertainty, an important one-sided filtering problem, and considerable imprecision due to data uncertainty. Also, the link between trend growth and the equilibrium real rate is shown to be quite weak. Overall, we conclude that statistical estimates of the equilibrium real rate will be difficult to use reliably in practical policy applications. --

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2004,32.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:2298

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Related research
Keywords: real-time-data; time-varying parameter; Kalman filter; trend growth;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

References listed on IDEAS
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  2. repec:cup:macdyn:v:7:y:2003:i:2:p:239-62 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  5. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  8. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Christophe Planas & Alessandro Rossi, 2004. "Can inflation data improve the real-time reliability of output gap estimates?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 121-133. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2004. "The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  19. Neiss, Katharine S. & Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Real-Interest-Rate Gap As An Inflation Indicator," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 239-262, April. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2003. "Permanent and transitory policy shocks in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information," Research Working Paper RWP 03-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  24. Antulio N. Bomfim, 2001. "Measuring equilibrium real interest rates: what can we learn from yields on indexed bonds?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  25. Sharon Kozicki, 2004. "How do data revisions affect the evaluation and conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-38. [Downloadable!]
  26. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P A, 1998. "Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1-2), pages 21-40, April. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2008. "Imperfect Knowledge And The Pitfalls Of Optimal Control Monetary Policy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 499, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 398, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Working Paper Series 2007-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Measuring the Natural Interest Rate for the Peruvian Economy," Working Papers 2006-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules and the Achievement of the Inflation Target: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 451, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michelle T. Armesto & William T. Gavin, 2005. "Monetary policy and commodity futures," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 395-405. [Downloadable!]
  7. John V. Duca & Tao Wu, 2008. "Regulation and the neo-Wicksellian approach to monetary policy," Working Papers 0807, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Bharat Trehan & Tao Wu, 2004. "Time varying equilibrium real rates and monetary policy analysis," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Roman Horváth, 2006. "Real-Time Time-Varying Equilibrium Interest Rates: Evidence on the Czech Republic," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp848, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 81-93. [Downloadable!]
  11. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sharon Kozicki & P. Tinsley, 2006. "Minding the Gap: Central Bank Estimates of the Unemployment Natural Rate," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 295-327, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Ladislav Wintr & Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2005. "Estimating the natural interest rate for the euro area and Luxembourg," BCL working papers 15, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  14. Roman Horváth, 2007. "Estimating Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time," Working Papers IES 2007/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  15. Franc Klaassen & Henk Jager, 2007. "Model-free Measurement of Exchange Market Pressure," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-112/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  16. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Estimating the Chilean Natural Rate of Interest," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 448, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  17. Rodrigo Fuentes S & Fabián Gredig U., 2008. "The Neutral Interest Rate: Estimates for Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 47-58, August. [Downloadable!]
  18. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit & Wim Kösters & Martin Leschke, 2006. "Money matters for inflation in the euro area," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 279/2006, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  19. Mésonnier, J-S., 2006. "The Reliability of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Real Interest Rate Gap Estimates in Real Time: an Assessment for the Euro Area," Documents de Travail 157, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
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