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Can inflation data improve the real-time reliability of output gap estimates?

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Author Info
Christophe Planas (Joint Research Centre of European Commission, Ispra, Italy)
Alessandro Rossi (Joint Research Centre of European Commission, Ispra, Italy)

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Abstract

Potential output plays a central role in monetary policy and short-term macroeconomic policy making. Yet, characterizing the output gap involves a trend-cycle decomposition, and unobserved component estimates are typically subject to a large uncertainty at the sample end. An important consequence is that output gap estimates can be quite inaccurate in real time, as recently highlighted by Orphanides and van Norden (2002), and this causes a serious problem for policy makers. For the cases of the US, EU-11 and two EU countries, we evaluate the benefits of using inflation data for improving the accuracy of real-time estimates. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.726
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2004-v19.1/
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 19 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 121-133
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:19:y:2004:i:1:p:121-133

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  3. Burridge, Peter & Wallis, Kenneth F, 1984. "Calculating the Variance of Seasonally Adjusted Series," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 251, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  4. Frank Smets, 2002. "Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 113-129. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Eric T. Swanson, 2000. "On signal extraction and non-certainty-equivalence in optimal monetary policy rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Structural Time Series Models for Business Cycle Analysis," MPRA Paper 6854, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fabrizio Zampolli & Andrew Blake, 2005. "Time Consistent Policy in Markov Switching Models," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 2, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Andrew P Blake & Fabrizio Zampolli, . "Optimal monetary policy in Markov-switching models with rational expectations agents," Bank of England working papers 298, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2004. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Harvey, A., 2008. "Modeling the Phillips curve with unobserved components," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0805, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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