Output gap uncertainty: does it matter for the Taylor rule?
AbstractThis paper analyses the effect of measurement error in the output gap on efficient monetary policy rules in a simple estimated model of the US economy. While it is a well-known result that such additive uncertainty does not affect the optimal feedback rule in a linear-quadratic framework, it is shown that output gap uncertainty can have a significant effect on the efficient response coefficients in restricted instrument rules such as the popular Taylor rule. Output gap uncertainty reduces the response to the current estimated output gap relative to current inflation and may partly explain why the parameters in estimated Taylor rules are often much lower than suggested by optimal control exercises which assume the state of the economy is known.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 60.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Nov 1998
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Frank Smets, 2002. "Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 113-129.
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dale W. Henderson & Warwick J. McKibbin, 1993.
"A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
458, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Henderson, Dale W. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 221-317, December.
- Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
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