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Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed, 1996-2003

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  • ROBERT J. TETLOW
  • BRIAN IRONSIDE

Abstract

We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro-model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. We document the surprisingly large and consequential changes in model properties that occurred during the period from July 1996 to November 2003 and compute optimal Taylor-type rules for each vintage. Model uncertainty is shown to be a substantial problem; the efficacy of purportedly optimal policy rules should not be taken on faith. We also find that previous findings that simple rules are robust to model uncertainty may be an overly sanguine conclusion. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
Issue (Month): 7 (October)
Pages: 1533-1561

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:7:p:1533-1561

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Cited by:
  1. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 3372, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Andrew Levin, 2007. "Comment on "Monetary Policy in Europe vs the US: What Explains the Difference?"," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 533-545 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Alon Binyamini & Assaf Razin, 2007. "Flattened Inflation-Output Tradeoff and Enhanced Anti-Inflation Policy as an Equilibrium Outcome of Globalization," Working Papers 232007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2009. "A defence of the FOMC," Economics Series Working Papers 457, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2012. "A Defense Of The Fomc," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1047-1065, November.
  5. Alon Binyamini & Assaf Razin, 2008. "Inflation-Output Tradeoff as Equilibrium Outcome of Globalization," NBER Working Papers 14379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Robert J. Tetlow, 2009. "Commentary on The challenges of estimating potential output in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 291-296.
  7. Bernoth, Kerstin & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Giuli Francesco, 2009. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," wp.comunite 0061, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.

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