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Simple and robust rules for monetary policy

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  • John B. Taylor
  • John C. Williams

Abstract

This paper focuses on simple normative rules for monetary policy which central banks can use to guide their interest rate decisions. Such rules were first derived from research on empirical monetary models with rational expectations and sticky prices built in the 1970s and 1980s. During the past two decades substantial progress has been made in establishing that such rules are robust. They perform well with a variety of newer and more rigorous models and policy evaluation methods. Simple rules are also frequently more robust than fully optimal rules. Important progress has also been made in understanding how to adjust simple rules to deal with measurement error and expectations. Moreover, historical experience has shown that simple rules can work well in the real world in that macroeconomic performance has been better when central bank decisions were described by such rules. The recent financial crisis has not changed these conclusions, but it has stimulated important research on how policy rules should deal with asset bubbles and the zero bound on interest rates. Going forward the crisis has drawn attention to the importance of research on international monetary issues and on the implications of discretionary deviations from policy rules.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2010-10.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2010-10

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Keywords: Monetary policy;

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Cited by:
  1. Singh, Ajay Pratap & Nikolaou, Michael, 2013. "Optimal rules for central bank interest rates subject to zero lower bound," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-49, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2009. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  3. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2013. "Quantifying The European Central Bank'S Interest Rate Smoothing Behavior," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(4), pages 470-492, 07.
  4. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage combination from a real-time dataset," CSEF Working Papers 274, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  5. Nils Jannsen & Melanie Klein, 2011. "The International Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Policy Shocks," Kiel Working Papers 1718, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Pierre-Richard Agénor & K. Alper & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2011. "Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability," Working Papers Series 237, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 3577, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  9. John B. Taylor, 2011. "Legislating a Rule for Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 10-032, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  10. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2010. "Monetary Policy Lessons from the Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Peter Tillmann, 2011. "Cross-Checking Optimal Monetary Policy with Information from the Taylor Rule," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201132, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  12. Mauricio Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada & Jorge Andrés Tamayo, 2011. "El sistema crediticio, la política monetaria y un posible origen de ciclos y crisis financieras," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  13. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2008. "Data Revisions, Gradualism, and US Inflation Pressure in Real Time," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0816, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  14. Dellas, H. & Diba, B. & Loisel, O., 2010. "Financial Shocks and Optimal Policy," Working papers 277, Banque de France.

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