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Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation

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  • George W. Evans

    ()
    (University of Oregon Economics Department)

  • Eran Guse

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Seppo Honkapohja

    ()
    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

We examine global economic dynamics under learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. Under normal monetary and fiscal policy, the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Large pessimistic shocks to expectations can lead to deflationary spirals with falling prices and falling output. To avoid this outcome we recommend augmenting normal policies with aggressive monetary and fiscal policy that guarantee a lower bound on inflation. In contrast, policies geared toward ensuring an output lower bound are insufficient for avoiding deflationary spirals.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2007-9.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 05 Jun 2007
Date of revision: 05 Jun 2007
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2007-9

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Keywords: Adaptive Learning; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Zero Interest Rate Lower Bound; Indeterminacy;

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References

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  1. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 2003. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1476-1498, December.
  2. Coenen, Günter & Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Price stability and monetary policy effectiveness when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero," Working Paper Series 0231, European Central Bank.
  3. Fabrizio Perri, 1999. "The Role of Fiscal Policy in Japan: A Quantitative Study," Working Papers 99-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  4. Bullard, James & Cho, In-Koo, 2005. "Escapist policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1841-1865, November.
  5. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2007. "Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 6216, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-11, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2004.
  7. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
  8. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical analysis regarding a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 870-935.
  9. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
  10. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1999. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," Departmental Working Papers 199914, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  11. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Policy interaction, expectations, and the liquidity trap," Working Paper 2003-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  12. Gauti Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a liquidity trap," Discussion Papers 0405-02, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  13. Marvin Goodfriend, 2000. "Overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy," Working Paper 00-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  14. Bruce Preston, 2003. "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter," Working Paper 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  15. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Macroeconomics 0405008, EconWPA.
  16. Bennett McCallum, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and the Liquidity Trap," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 9, pages 395-438 Central Bank of Chile.
  17. Eusepi, Stefano, 2007. "Learnability and monetary policy: A global perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1115-1131, May.
  18. Laurence Ball, 2005. "Fiscal Remedies for Japan's Slump," NBER Working Papers 11374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Klaus Adam & Roberto M. Billi, 2005. "Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates," Research Working Paper RWP 05-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  20. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 1996. "Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with Heterogeneous Learning Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 1310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
  22. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2002. "Passive Savers and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan," Working Paper Series WP02-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  23. R. Anton Braun & Yuichiro Waki, 2005. "Monetary Policy during Japan's Lost Decade," CARF F-Series CARF-F-035, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  24. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  25. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Posen, Adam S., 2002. "Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 536-558, December.
  26. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  27. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall.
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  1. "Deep Recession Calls for Healthy Dose of Fiscal Stimulation"
    by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2009-08-02 20:06:09
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