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Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning

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  • Evans, George W
  • Honkapohja, Seppo
  • Mitra, Kaushik

Abstract

We consider the impact of anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations. To model this we assume that agents combine limited structural knowledge with a standard adaptive learning rule. We analyze these issues using two well-known set-ups, an endowment economy and the Ramsey model. In our set-up there are important deviations from both rational expectations and purely adaptive learning. Our approach could be applied to many macroeconomic frameworks.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6216.

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Date of creation: Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6216

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Keywords: expectations; Ramsey model; taxation;

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References

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  1. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-48, November.
  2. Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1998. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 1875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2007. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," Discussion Papers 0708-10, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  4. In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.
  5. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 2001. "Convergence In Monetary Inflation Models With Heterogeneous Learning Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 1-31, February.
  6. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
  7. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  8. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Macroeconomics 0405008, EconWPA.
  9. Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 1992. "Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 207-24, March.
  10. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June.
  11. Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 2001. "Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt41f2h196, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  12. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1998. "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(1), pages 23-44, January.
  13. Christopher L. House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2004. "Phased-In Tax Cuts and Economic Activity," Macroeconomics 0404009, EconWPA.
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  23. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  24. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., . "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," GSIA Working Papers 1997-37, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  25. Bruce Preston, 2003. "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter," Working Paper 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  26. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-85, July.
  27. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 1998. "Calculation, Adaptation And Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 156-182, June.
  28. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2004. "Supply-side reforms and learning dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 36, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  29. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 203-217.
  30. William Poole, 2002. "Flation," Speech 49, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Evans, G.W. & Guse, E. & Honkapohja, S, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0732, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Liam Graham, 2011. "Learning, information and heterogeneity," CDMA Working Paper Series 201113, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  3. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Emanuel Gasteiger & Shoujian Zhang, 2013. "Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation," CDMA Working Paper Series 201301, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  5. Kaushik Mitra & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2011. "Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model," CDMA Working Paper Series 201111, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  6. Liam Graham, 2011. "Individual rationality, model-consistent expectations and learning," CDMA Working Paper Series 201112, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  7. Honkapohja , Seppo & Turunen, Arja H & Woodland, Alan D, 2011. "Growth, expectations and tariffs," Research Discussion Papers 9/2011, Bank of Finland.
  8. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Bernardo X. Fernandez & Jim Malley, 2011. "The Distributional Consequences of Supply-Side Reforms in General Equilibrium," CESifo Working Paper Series 3504, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Isabelle SALLE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Martin ZUMPE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Murat YILDIZOGLU (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113), 2012. "Modelling Social Learning in an Agent-Based New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model," Cahiers du GREThA 2012-20, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.

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