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Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning

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  • George W. Evans

    ()

  • Seppo Honkapohja

    ()

  • Kaushik Mitra

    ()

Abstract

We consider the impact of anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations. To model this we assume that agents combine limited structural knowledge with a standard adaptive learning rule. We analyze these issues using two well-known set-ups, an endowment economy and the Ramsey model. In our set-up there are important deviations from both rational expectations and purely adaptive learning. Our approach could be applied to many macroeconomic frameworks.

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File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/economics/CDMA/papers/wp0717.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 200717.

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Date of creation: 15 Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:0717

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Keywords: Taxation; expectations; Ramsey model.;

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References

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  1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2004. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Working Paper Series 0337, European Central Bank.
  2. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x, January.
  3. Evans, Geroge W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Romer, Paul, 1998. "Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 495-515, June.
  4. Krusell, P & Smith Jr, A-A, 1995. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomic," RCER Working Papers 399, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
  6. George W. Evans & Garey Ramey, 2001. ""Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Dec 2004.
  7. repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:2:p:272-302 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 2001. "Learning And Excess Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 272-302, April.
  9. Bruce Preston, 2003. "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter," Working Paper 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-48, November.
  11. Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 1992. "Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 207-24, March.
  12. Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2006. "Supply-side reforms and learning dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 291-309, March.
  13. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, January.
  14. Cho, In-Koo & Williams, Noah & Sargent, Thomas J, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40, January.
  15. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design," CEPR Discussion Papers 3962, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June.
  17. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.
  18. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-50, June.
  19. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-85, July.
  20. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, . "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 51, Society for Computational Economics.
  21. Marcet, A. & Nicolini, J.P., 1997. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," Papers 9721, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  22. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 203-217.
  23. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 2001. "Convergence In Monetary Inflation Models With Heterogeneous Learning Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 1-31, February.
  24. William Poole, 2002. "Flation," Speech 49, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  25. Matthew D. Shapiro & Christopher L. House, 2006. "Phased-In Tax Cuts and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1835-1849, December.
  26. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  27. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
  28. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 235-71, July.
  29. Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 1998. "Calculation, Adaptation And Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 156-182, June.
  30. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2013. "Policy change and learning in the RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1947-1971.
  2. Evans, George W & Guse, Eran & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," CEPR Discussion Papers 6355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Seppo Honkapohja & Arja H. Turunen-Red & Alan D. Woodland, 2011. "Growth, Expectations, and Tariffs," CESifo Working Paper Series 3435, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Bernardo X. Fernandez & Jim Malley, 2011. "The Distributional Consequences of Supply-Side Reforms in General Equilibrium," CESifo Working Paper Series 3504, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Isabelle SALLE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Martin ZUMPE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Murat YILDIZOGLU (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113), 2012. "Modelling Social Learning in an Agent-Based New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model," Cahiers du GREThA 2012-20, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
  6. Liam Graham, 2011. "Individual rationality, model-consistent expectations and learning," CDMA Working Paper Series 201112, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  7. Emanuel Gasteiger & Shoujian Zhang, 2013. "Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 201309, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews.
  8. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Liam Graham, 2011. "Learning, information and heterogeneity," CDMA Working Paper Series 201113, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.

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