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Anticipated Fiscal Policy and Adaptive Learning

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  • George W. Evans

    ()

  • Seppo Honkapohja

    ()

  • Kaushik Mitra

    ()

Abstract

We consider the impact of anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations. To model this we assume that agents combine limited structural knowledge with a standard adaptive learning rule. We analyze these issues using two well-known set-ups, an endowment economy and the Ramsey model. In our set-up there are important deviations from both rational expectations and purely adaptive learning. Our approach could be applied to many macroeconomic frameworks.

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File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/economics/CDMA/papers/wp0717.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 200717.

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Date of creation: 15 Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:0717

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Keywords: Taxation; expectations; Ramsey model.;

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References

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  1. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-34, June.
  2. In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.
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  4. Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2006. "Supply-side reforms and learning dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 291-309, March.
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  6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  7. Evans, Geroge W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Romer, Paul, 1998. "Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 495-515, June.
  8. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1998. "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(1), pages 23-44, January.
  9. Bruce Preston, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
  10. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 2001. "Convergence In Monetary Inflation Models With Heterogeneous Learning Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 1-31, February.
  11. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
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  23. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  25. James Bullard & John Duffy, 1999. "Learning and Excess Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 224, Society for Computational Economics.
  26. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026212274x, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Emanuel, Gasteiger & Shoujian, Zhang, 2013. "Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-50, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  2. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2012. "Policy Change and Learning in the RBC Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Honkapohja , Seppo & Turunen, Arja H & Woodland, Alan D, 2011. "Growth, expectations and tariffs," Research Discussion Papers 9/2011, Bank of Finland.
  4. Liam Graham, 2011. "Individual rationality, model-consistent expectations and learning," CDMA Working Paper Series 201112, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  5. George W. Evans & Eran Guse & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2007-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 05 Jun 2007.
  6. Konstantinos Angelopoulos & Bernardo X. Fernandez & Jim Malley, 2011. "The Distributional Consequences of Supply-Side Reforms in General Equilibrium," CESifo Working Paper Series 3504, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Liam Graham, 2011. "Learning, information and heterogeneity," CDMA Working Paper Series 201113, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  8. Isabelle SALLE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Martin ZUMPE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Murat YILDIZOGLU (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113), 2012. "Modelling Social Learning in an Agent-Based New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model," Cahiers du GREThA 2012-20, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
  9. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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