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Phased-In Tax Cuts and Economic Activity

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Author Info
Christopher L. House
Matthew D. Shapiro

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Abstract

Phased-in tax reductions are a common feature of tax legislation. This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to quantify the effects of delaying tax cuts. According to the analysis of the model, the phased-in tax cuts of the 2001 tax law substantially reduced employment, output, and investment during the phase-in period. In contrast, the immediate tax cuts of the 2003 tax law provided significant incentives for immediate production and investment. The paper argues that the rules and accounting procedures used by Congress for formulating tax policy have a significant impact in shaping the details of tax policy and led to the phase-ins, sunsets, and temporary tax changes in both the 2001 and 2003 tax laws.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10415.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10415

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. John Diamond, 2005. "Dynamic Effects of Extending the 2001 and 2003 Income Tax Cuts," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 165-192, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2009. "Noncausal vector autoregression," Research Discussion Papers 18/2009, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jawwad Noor, 2007. "Hyperbolic Discounting and the Standard Model," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-028, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mathias Trabandt & Harald Uhlig, 2006. "How Far Are We From The Slippery Slope? The Laffer Curve Revisited," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2009. "Fundamentals, Financial Factors and The Dynamics of Investment in Emerging Markets," NIPE Working Papers 19/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  6. R. Andrew Butters & Marcelo Veracierto, 2009. "Preannounced tax cuts and their potential influence on the 2001 recession," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 44-60. [Downloadable!]
  7. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2009. "Asset prices, Credit and Investment in Emerging Markets," NIPE Working Papers 18/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  8. William Gale & Peter Orszag, 2005. "Economic Effects of Making the 2001 and 2003 Tax Cuts Permanent," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 193-232, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Christopher House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2006. "Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation," NBER Working Papers 12514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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