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Why Do Migrants Return to Poor Countries? Evidence from Philippine Migrants’ Responses to Exchange Rate Shocks

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Author Info
Dean Yang (University of Michigan)

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Abstract

Why would migrant workers in rich countries ever return to poorer countries of origin? In a model of migration and household investment, with borrowing constraints and minimum investment thresholds, return migration occurs for either target-earnings or life-cycle reasons. This paper exploits a unique quasi-experiment to distinguish between these potential explanations for return migration. I examine how the return decisions of Philippine migrants respond to major and unexpected exchange rate shocks (due to the 1997 Asian financial crisis). Overall, the evidence favors the life-cycle explanation: more favorable exchange rate shocks lead to fewer migrant returns. A 10% improvement in the exchange rate reduces the 12-month return rate by 1.4 percentage points. However, there is evidence that some migrants are motivated by target-earnings considerations: for households with intermediate levels of foreign earnings, more favorable exchange rate shocks have the least effect on return migration, but lead to increases in entrepreneurial income, real property purchases, and vehicle ownership. Overall, the findings are at odds with a model with relaxed constraints on borrowing for household investment.

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Paper provided by Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan in its series Working Papers with number 513.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:513

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Postal: ANN ARBOR MICHIGAN 48109
Web page: http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/
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Related research
Keywords: international migration; intertemporal labor supply; credit constraints; exchange rate shocks; entrepreneurship; Asian financial crisis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
O12 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

References listed on IDEAS
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  2. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 1994. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," NBER Working Papers 4913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hill, John K., 1987. "Immigrant decisions concerning duration of stay and migratory frequency," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 221-234, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Djajic, Slobodan & Milbourne, Ross, 1988. "A general equilibrium model of guest-worker migration : The source-country perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 335-351, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Yang, Dean, 2005. "International migration, human capital, and entrepreneurship : evidence from Philippine migrants'exchange rate shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3578, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2002. "The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-372, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Galor, Oded & Stark, Oded, 1990. "Migrants' Savings, the Probability of Return Migration and Migrants' Performance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 463-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Camerer, Colin, et al, 1997. "Labor Supply of New York City Cabdrivers: One Day at a Time," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 407-41, May.
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  12. Chiswick, Barry R. & Hatton, Timothy J., 2002. "International Migration and the Integration of Labor Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 559, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Banerjee, Abhijit V & Newman, Andrew F, 1993. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 274-98, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Alice Mesnard, 2004. "Temporary migration and capital market imperfections," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 242-262, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Lalonde, Robert J. & Topel, Robert H., 1993. "Economic impact of international migration and the economic performance of migrants," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 799-850 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gordon H. Hanson, 2008. "The Economic Consequences of the International Migration of Labor," NBER Working Papers 14490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Silvio Rendon & Alfredo Cuecuecha, 2007. "International Job Search: Mexicans in and out of the U.S," Working Papers 0709, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Yang, Dean, 2005. "International migration, human capital, and entrepreneurship : evidence from Philippine migrants'exchange rate shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3578, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jeffrey Grogger & Gordon H. Hanson, 2008. "Income Maximization and the Selection and Sorting of International Migrants," NBER Working Papers 13821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Albert Park & Dean Yang & Xinzheng Shi & Yuan Jiang, 2009. "Exporting and Firm Performance: Chinese Exporters and the Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 14632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Adams, Richard H., Jr. & Cuecuecha, Alfredo & Page, John, 2008. "The impact of remittances on poverty and inequality in Ghana," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4732, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. John Gibson & David McKenzie, 2009. "The Microeconomic Determinants of Emigration and Return Migration of the Best and Brightest: Evidence from the Pacific," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0903, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Blanchflower, David G. & Lawton, Helen, 2008. "The Impact of the Recent Expansion of the EU on the UK Labour Market," IZA Discussion Papers 3695, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  9. Zakharenko, Roman, 2007. "Migration, Learning, and Development," MPRA Paper 6262, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Prachi Mishra & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Wages in an Integrated World," IMF Working Papers 09/44, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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