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Growth Cycles

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Author Info
Evans, Geroge W
Honkapohja, Seppo
Romer, Paul

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Abstract

The authors construct a rational expectations model in which the economy switches stochastically between periods of low and high growth. When agents expect growth to be slow, the returns on investment are low and little investment takes place. But if agents expect fast growth, investment is high, returns are high, and growth is rapid. This expectational indeterminacy is induced by monopolistic competition and complementarity between different types of capital goods. Neither externalities nor increasing returns to scale are required. The equilibrium with growth cycles is stable under the dynamics implied by a simple learning rule. Copyright 1998 by American Economic Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 88 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 495-515
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:88:y:1998:i:3:p:495-515

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell W. Cooper & B. Ravikumar, 1993. "Strategic complementarity in business formation: aggregate fluctuations and sunspot equilibria," Working Papers 93-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  3. Gali Jordi, 1994. "Monopolistic Competition, Business Cycles, and the Composition of Aggregate Demand," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 73-96, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Benhabib, Jess & Gali, Jordi, 1995. "On growth and indeterminacy: some theory and evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 163-211, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 1996. "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich.
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  6. Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell W. Cooper, 1993. "Entry and exit, product variety and the business cycle," Working Papers 93-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  7. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Brock, William A., 1975. "A simple perfect foresight monetary model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-150, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Chamley, Christophe, 1993. "Externalities and Dynamics in Models of "Learning or Doing."," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(3), pages 583-609, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Howitt, Peter & McAfee, R Preston, 1992. "Animal Spirits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 493-507, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Beaudry, P. & Devereux, M.B., 1993. "Monopolistic Competition, Price Setting and the Effcts of Real and Monetary Shocks," UBC Departmental Archives 93-34, UBC Department of Economics.
  14. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Guesnerie, R. & Woodford, M., 1991. "Endogenous Fluctuations," DELTA Working Papers 91-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  16. Bryant, John, 1983. "A Simple Rational Expectations Keynes-Type Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 525-28, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "A Sticky-Price Manifesto," NBER Working Papers 4677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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