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Growth Cycles

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  • George Evans
  • Seppo Honkapohja
  • Paul Romer

Abstract

We construct a rational expectations model in which aggregate growth alternates between a low growth and a high growth state. When all agents expect growth to be slow, the returns on investment are low, and little investment takes place. This slows growth and confirms the prediction that the returns on investment will be low. But if agents expect fast growth, investment is high, returns are high, and growth is rapid. This expectational indeterminacy is induced by complementarity between different types of capital goods. In a growth cycle there are stochastic shifts between high and low growth states and agents take full account of these transitions. The rules that agents need to form rational expectations in this equilibrium are simple. The equilibrium with growth cycles is stable under the dynamics implied by a correspondingly simple learning rule

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5659.

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Date of creation: Jul 1996
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5659

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  1. Gali Jordi, 1994. "Monopolistic Competition, Business Cycles, and the Composition of Aggregate Demand," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 73-96, June.
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  5. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
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  13. Benhabib, Jess & Gali, Jordi, 1995. "On Growth and Indeterminacy: Some Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 95-08, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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