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Chaos, sunspots, and automatic stabilizers

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Author Info
Lawrence J. Christiano
Sharon G. Harrison

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Abstract

We study a one-sector growth model which is standard except for the presence of an externality in the production function. The set of competitive equilibria is large. It includes constant equilibria, sunspot equilibria, cyclical and chaotic equilibria, and equilibria with deterministic or stochastic regime switching. The efficient allocation is characterized by constant employment and a constant growth rate. We identify an income tax-subsidy schedule that supports the efficient allocation as the unique equilibrium outcome. That schedule has two properties: (i) it specifies the tax rate to be an increasing function of aggregate employment, and (ii) earnings are subsidized when aggregate employment is at its efficient level. The first feature eliminates inefficient, fluctuating equilibria, while the second induces agents to internalize the externality.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 214.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:214

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Keywords: Chaotic behavior in systems ; Income tax;

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  9. Watson, Mark W, 1993. "Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1011-41, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1995. "Balanced-budget rules, distortionary taxes, and aggregate instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  14. Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Ellen McGrattan & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright, 1995. "An equilibrium model of the business cycle with household production and fiscal policy," Staff Report 191, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 878, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Dale T. Mortensen, 1991. "Equilibrium Unemployment Cycles," Discussion Papers 939, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Bryant, John, 1981. "Bank Collapse and Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 454-64, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Hall, George J., 1996. "Overtime, effort, and the propagation of business cycle shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 139-160, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Boldrin, Michele & Rustichini, Aldo, 1994. "Growth and Indeterminacy in Dynamic Models with Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 323-42, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Poole, William, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Testing for sunspot equilibria in the German hyperinflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 289-317. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 1995. "Comparing four models of aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  34. Finn Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1980. "A Competitive Theory of Fluctuations and the Feasibility and Desirability of Stabilization Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 169-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  35. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Real-Business-Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 71-89, March.
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  38. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1984. "A reexamination of the theory of automatic stabilizers," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 147-206, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  41. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  42. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  48. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Monopolistic competition, endogenous markups, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 748-756, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  49. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996. "Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-74, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  50. Guesnerie, R. & Woodford, M., 1991. "Endogenous Fluctuations," DELTA Working Papers 91-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  51. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  52. Bryant, John, 1983. "A Simple Rational Expectations Keynes-Type Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 525-28, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  53. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 24, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  54. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  55. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  56. Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
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  57. Domowitz, Ian & El-Gamal, Mahmoud A., 1993. "A Consistent Test of Stationary Ergodicity," Working Papers 794, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  58. Woodford, Michael, 1987. "Three Questions about Sunspot Equilibria as an Explanation of Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 93-98, May.
  59. Romer, Paul M, 1987. "Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  60. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  61. Dale T. Mortensen, 1988. "The Persistence and Indeterminacy of Unemployment in Search Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 810, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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