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Chaos, sunspots, and automatic stabilizers Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Lawrence J. Christiano
Sharon G. Harrison
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We study a one-sector growth model which is standard except for the presence of an externality in the production function. The set of competitive equilibria is large. It includes constant equilibria, sunspot equilibria, cyclical and chaotic equilibria, and equilibria with deterministic or stochastic regime switching. The efficient allocation is characterized by constant employment and a constant growth rate. We identify an income tax-subsidy schedule that supports the efficient allocation as the unique equilibrium outcome. That schedule has two properties: (i) it specifies the tax rate to be an increasing function of aggregate employment, and (ii) earnings are subsidized when aggregate employment is at its efficient level. The first feature eliminates inefficient, fluctuating equilibria, while the second induces agents to internalize the externality.
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues with number
WP-96-16.
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Date of creation: 1996Date of revision:
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Keywords: Chaotic behavior in systems ; Taxation ; Economic stabilization ; Other versions of this item:
Article Paper Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison, 1996.
"Chaos, Sunspots, and Automatic Stabilizers ,"
NBER Working Papers
5703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison, 1996.
"Chaos, sunspots, and automatic stabilizers ,"
Staff Report
214, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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"Was the Great Depression a Low-Level Equilibrium? ,"
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Economics Working Papers
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"Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy ,"
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"Endogenous Price Fluctuations in an Optimizing Model of a Monetary Economy ,"
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Other versions: Watson, Mark W, 1993.
"Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
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Rebelo, Sergio, 1991.
"Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
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Other versions: Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983.
"Do Sunspots Matter? ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
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Hamilton, James D, 1989.
"A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle ,"
Econometrica ,
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Benhabib Jess & Rustichini Aldo, 1994.
"Introduction to the Symposium on Growth, Fluctuations, and Sunspots: Confronting the Data ,"
Journal of Economic Theory ,
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"Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
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Other versions: Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990.
"Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March.
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Other versions: Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1995.
"Balanced-budget rules, distortionary taxes, and aggregate instability ,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
95-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Other versions:
Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997.
"Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
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William Poole, 1970.
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Staff Studies
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Other versions:
William Poole, 1969.
"Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model ,"
Special Studies Papers
2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Poole, William, 1970.
"Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model ,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics ,
MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216, May.
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"Indeterminacy and Sector-Specific Externalities ,"
Working Papers
95-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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Other versions:
Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E A, 1996.
"Indeterminacy and Sector-specific Externalities ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1403, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Roger E.A. Farmer, 1994.
"Indeterminacy and Sector-Specific Externalities ,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
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[Downloadable!] Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1996.
"Indeterminacy and Sector-Specific Externalities ,"
Working Papers
96-12, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
[Downloadable!] Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E. A., 1996.
"Indeterminacy and sector-specific externalities ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
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"Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth ,"
Journal of Economic Theory ,
Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June.
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Farmer, Roger E.A. & Woodford, Michael, 1997.
"Self-Fulfilling Prophecies And The Business Cycle ,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics ,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(04), pages 740-769, December.
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Burnside, C & Eichenbaum, M & Rebelo, S, 1995.
"Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale ,"
RCER Working Papers
402, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
Other versions:
Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1995.
"Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale ,"
NBER Working Papers
5125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1995.
"Capital utilization and returns to scale ,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
95-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Burnside, A Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1995.
"Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1221, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1995.
"Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale ,"
NBER Chapters ,
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 67-124
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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"Monopolistic Competition, Price Setting and the Effcts of Real and Monetary Shocks ,"
UBC Departmental Archives
93-34, UBC Department of Economics.
Ellen McGrattan & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright, 1995.
"An equilibrium model of the business cycle with household production and fiscal policy ,"
Staff Report
191, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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McGrattan, Ellen R & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1997.
"An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle with Household Production and Fiscal Policy ,"
International Economic Review ,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 267-90, May.
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"Dynamic externalities, multiple equilibria, and growth ,"
Journal of Economic Theory ,
Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 198-218, December.
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Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993.
"Output dynamics in real business cycle models ,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
93-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Other versions:
Cogley, T. & Nason, J.M., 1994.
"Output Dynamics in Real Business Cycle Models ,"
UBC Departmental Archives
94-28, UBC Department of Economics.
Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995.
"Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990.
"Increasing Returns, Industrialization and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium ,"
Discussion Papers
878, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
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Other versions: Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983.
"Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
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Other versions: Gali, Jordi, 1994.
"Monopolistic competition, endogenous markups, and growth ,"
European Economic Review ,
Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 748-756, April.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996.
"Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-74, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Dale T. Mortensen, 1991.
"Equilibrium Unemployment Cycles ,"
Discussion Papers
939, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
[Downloadable!]
Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988.
"Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models ,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics ,
MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August.
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Guesnerie, R. & Woodford, M., 1991.
"Endogenous Fluctuations ,"
DELTA Working Papers
91-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
El-Gamal, Mahmoud A, 1991.
"Non-parametric Estimation of Deterministically Chaotic Systems ,"
Economic Theory ,
Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 147-67, April.
Krugman, Paul, 1991.
"History versus Expectations ,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics ,
MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-67, May.
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Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989.
"Observable Implications of Models with Multiple Equilibria ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1431-37, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Bryant, John, 1983.
"A Simple Rational Expectations Keynes-Type Model ,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics ,
MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 525-28, August.
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Altug, Sumru, 1989.
"Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence ,"
International Economic Review ,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 889-920, November.
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Other versions: Bryant, John, 1981.
"Bank Collapse and Depression ,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 454-64, November.
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Howitt, Peter & McAfee, R Preston, 1988.
"Stability of Equilibria with Externalities ,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics ,
MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 261-77, May.
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Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990.
"Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations ,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
24, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990.
"Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations ,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
90, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992.
"Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-50, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994.
"Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis ,"
Journal of Economic Theory ,
Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988.
"Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much? ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000.
"Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises ,"
Review of Economic Studies ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
Other versions: Domowitz, Ian & El-Gamal, Mahmoud A., 1993.
"A Consistent Test of Stationary Ergodicity ,"
Working Papers
794, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
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Other versions: Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995.
"The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study ,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy ,
Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
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Other versions: Woodford, Michael, 1987.
"Three Questions about Sunspot Equilibria as an Explanation of Economic Fluctuations ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 93-98, May.
Romer, Paul M, 1987.
"Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May.
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Hall, George J., 1996.
"Overtime, effort, and the propagation of business cycle shocks ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 139-160, August.
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Other versions: Boldrin, Michele & Rustichini, Aldo, 1994.
"Growth and Indeterminacy in Dynamic Models with Externalities ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 323-42, March.
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Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1986.
"Stabilizing competitive business cycles ,"
Journal of Economic Theory ,
Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 57-76, October.
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Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1993.
"Testing for sunspot equilibria in the German hyperinflation ,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control ,
Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 289-317.
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Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982.
"Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
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Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 1995.
"Comparing four models of aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations ,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
95-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Other versions: Dale T. Mortensen, 1988.
"The Persistence and Indeterminacy of Unemployment in Search Equilibrium ,"
Discussion Papers
810, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
[Downloadable!]
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