Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Fiscal Policy, Increasing Returns, And Endogenous Fluctuations

Contents:

Author Info

  • Guo, Jang-Ting
  • Lansing, Kevin J.

Abstract

This paper examines the quantitative implications of government fiscal policy in a discrete-time one-sector growth model with a productive externality that generates social increasing returns to scale. Starting from a laissez-faire economy that exhibits local indeterminacy, we show that the introduction of a constant capital tax or subsidy can lead to various forms of endogenous fluctuations, including stable 2-, 4-, 8-, and 10-cycles, quasiperiodic orbits, and chaos. In contrast, a constant labor tax or subsidy has no effect on the qualitative nature of the model s dynamics. We show that the use of local steady-state analysis to detect the presence of multiple equilibria in this class of models can be misleading. For a plausible range of capital tax rates, the log-linearized dynamical system exhibits saddle-point stability, suggesting a unique equilibrium, whereas the true nonlinear model exhibits global indeterminacy. This result implies that stabilization policies designed to suppress sunspot fluctuations near the steady state may not prevent sunspots, cycles, or chaos in regions away from the steady state. Overall, our results highlight the importance of using a model s nonlinear equilibrium conditions to fully investigate global dynamics.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S1365100501010112
File Function: link to article abstract page
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2002)
Issue (Month): 05 (November)
Pages: 633-664

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:05:p:633-664_01

Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Edinburgh Building, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU UK
Fax: +44 (0)1223 325150
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_MDYProvider-Email:journals@cambridge.org

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Eric W. Bond & Ping Wang & Chong K. Yip, 1993. "A general two-sector model of endogenous growth with human and physical capital: balanced growth and transitional dynamics," Research Paper 9324, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Barnett William A. & He Yijun, 1999. "Stability Analysis of Continuous-Time Macroeconometric Systems," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-22, January.
  3. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  4. Roberto Perli, 1995. "Indeterminacy, Home Production, and the Business Cycle: a Calibrated Analysis," Home Pages _042, University of Pennsylvania.
  5. Goenka, Aditya, 1994. "Fiscal Rules and Extrinsic Uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 401-16, May.
  6. Chattopadhyay, Subir K, 1996. "Pareto Optimal Improvements for Sunspots: The Golden Rule as a Target for Stabilization," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 123-35, June.
  7. Kind, Christoph, 1999. "Remarks on the economic interpretation of Hopf bifurcations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 147-154, February.
  8. James Bullard & Alison Butler, 1992. "Nonlinearity and chaos in economic models: implications for policy decisions," Working Papers 1991-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Venditti, A., 1996. "Indeterminancy and Endogenous Fluctuations in Two-Sector Growth Models with Externalities," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a04, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  10. Grandmont Jean-michel, 1985. "Stabilizing competitive business cycles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8518, CEPREMAP.
  11. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1995. "Capital utilization and returns to scale," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Jang-Ting Guo & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Optimal taxation of capital income with imperfectly competitive product markets," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 98-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Baierla, Gary & Nishimura, Kazuo & Yano, Makoto, 1998. "The role of capital depreciation in multi-sectoral models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 467-479, January.
  14. Juster, F. Thomas & Stafford, Frank P., 1990. "The Allocation of Time: Empirical Findings, Behavioural Models, and Problems of Measurement," Working Paper Series 258, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  15. Becker, R.C. & Foias, C., 1992. "The Local Bifurcation of Ramsey Equilibrium," Papers 92-002, Indiana - Center for Econometric Model Research.
  16. Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 630, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 1999. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Cazzavillan, Guido & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Pintus, Patrick, 1996. "Multiple steady states and endogenous fluctuations with increasing returns to scale in production," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9618, CEPREMAP.
  19. Pintus, Patrick & Sands, Ducan & De Vilder, Robin, 1996. "On the transition from local regular to global irregular fluctuations," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9617, CEPREMAP.
  20. Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison, 1996. "Chaos, sunspots, and automatic stabilizers," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  21. repec:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:1:p:84-114 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Drugeon, Jean-Pierre & Venditti, Alain, 2001. "Intersectoral external effects, multiplicities & indeterminacies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 765-787, May.
  23. Jean-Michel Grandmont & P, A, Pintus & R, De Vilder, 1997. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Working Papers 97-28, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  24. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1991. "Endogenous Price Fluctuations in an Optimizing Model of a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1617-31, November.
  25. Evans, Geroge W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Romer, Paul, 1998. "Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 495-515, June.
  26. Kaas, Leo, 1998. "Stabilizing chaos in a dynamic macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 313-332, January.
  27. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Implementation Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1163-90, December.
  28. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1996. "Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications," International Finance Discussion Papers 546, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. Roger E.A. Farmer, 1994. "Indeterminacy and Sector-Specific Externalities," UCLA Economics Working Papers 722, UCLA Department of Economics.
  30. Benhabib, Jess & Miyao, Takahiro, 1981. "Some New Results on the Dynamics of the Generalized Tobin Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 589-96, October.
  31. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:4:p:505-32 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Investment cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1139-1165, May.
  33. Smith, Bruce D, 1994. "Efficiency and Determinacy of Equilibrium under Inflation Targeting," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 327-44.
  34. Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June.
  35. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 1998. "Indeterminacy and Stabilization Policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 481-490, October.
  36. Benhabib, Jess, 1980. "Adaptive monetary policy and rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 261-266, October.
  37. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
  38. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 1997. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Eliminating Nonconvergent Dynamic Paths," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 249-61, February.
  39. Grandmont Jean-michel, 1983. "On endogenous competitive business cycles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8316, CEPREMAP.
  40. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1995. "Balanced-budget rules, distortionary taxes, and aggregate instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  41. Azariadis, Costas & Guesnerie, Roger, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(5), pages 725-37, October.
  42. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1989. "Stochastic Equilibrium Oscillations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(1), pages 85-102, February.
  43. Michele Boldrin & Michael Woodford, 1988. "Equilibruim Models Displaying Endogenous Fluctuations and Chaos: A Survey," UCLA Economics Working Papers 530, UCLA Department of Economics.
  44. Reichlin Pietro, 1997. "Endogenous Cycles in Competitive Models: An Overview," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(4), pages 1-13, January.
  45. Mitra, Tapan, 1998. "On the relationship between discounting and complicated behavior in dynamic optimization models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 421-434, January.
  46. Guo, Jang-Ting, 1999. "Multiple equilibria and progressive taxation of labor income," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 97-103, October.
  47. Reichlin, Pietro, 1986. "Equilibrium cycles in an overlapping generations economy with production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 89-102, October.
  48. Matheny, K-J, 1996. "Output Targeting and an Argument for Stabilization Policies," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1092, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
  49. Boldrin, Michele, 1992. "Dynamic externalities, multiple equilibria, and growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 198-218, December.
  50. Subir K. Chattopadhyay, 1996. "Pareto optimal improvements for sunspots: The golden rule as a target for stabilization," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 123-135.
  51. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
  52. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  53. Andrew B. Abel & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1982. "An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment," NBER Working Papers 0885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Kamihigashi, Takashi, 1996. "Real business cycles and sunspot fluctuations are observationally equivalent," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 105-117, February.
  55. Jang-Ting Guo & Kevin Lansing, 1999. "Fiscal policy, increasing returns, and endogenous fluctuations," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  56. Gary Hansen, 2010. "Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 233, David K. Levine.
  57. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1993. "Adaptive forecasts, hysteresis, and endogenous fluctuations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.
  58. Greiner Alfred & Semmler Willi, 1996. "Saddle Path Stability, Fluctuations, and Indeterminacy in Economic Growth," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-16, July.
  59. Medio, Alfredo, 1999. "Nonlinear Dynamics And Chaos Part Ii: Ergodic Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 84-114, March.
  60. Medio, Alfredo, 1998. "Nonlinear Dynamics And Chaos Part I: A Geometrical Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 505-532, December.
  61. Puhakka, Mikko & Wright, Randall, 1991. "Subsidization and Stabilization: Optimal Employment Policy under Aggregate Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(2), pages 513-28, May.
  62. Gaines, R. E. & Peterson, J. K., 1985. "The existence of optimal consumption policies in optimal economic growth models with nonconvex technologies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 76-98, October.
  63. Dechert, W. Davis & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1983. "A complete characterization of optimal growth paths in an aggregated model with a non-concave production function," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 332-354, December.
  64. Michener, Ronald & Ravikumar, B., 1998. "Chaotic dynamics in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1117-1137, May.
  65. Austin, D. Andrew, 1999. "Social Security as an Economic Stabilization Program," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 309-333, April.
  66. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "Aggregate returns to scale: why measurement is imprecise," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 19-28.
  67. Farmer, Roger E. A., 1986. "Deficits and cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 77-88, October.
  68. Georges, Christophre, 1995. "Adjustment costs and indeterminacy in perfect foresight models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 39-50.
  69. Kemp, Murray C & Long, Ngo Van & Shimomura, Koji, 1993. "Cyclical and Noncyclical Redistributive Taxation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(2), pages 415-29, May.
  70. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1998. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 58-96, July.
  71. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  72. Cres, Herve & Ghiglino, Christian & Tvede, Mich, 1997. "Externalities, Internalization and Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 465-77, May.
  73. Nishimura Kazuo & Sorger Gerhard, 1996. "Optimal Cycles and Chaos: A Survey," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, April.
  74. Chattopadhyay, Subir & Muench, Thomas J., 1999. "Sunpsots and cycles reconsidered1," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 67-75, April.
  75. Foley, Duncan K, 1992. "A Contribution to the Theory of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 1071-88, August.
  76. Cazzavillan, Guido, 1996. "Public Spending, Endogenous Growth, and Endogenous Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 394-415, November.
  77. Becker, Robert A., 1985. "Capital income taxation and perfect foresight," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 147-167, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:05:p:633-664_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.