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Estimation and Identification of Structural Parameters in the Presence of Multiple Equilibria

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  • Russell W. Cooper
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    Abstract

    This paper studies quantitative implications of model economies that exhibit multiple equilibria. The goal is to assess two interrelated issues. First, do economies with multiple equilibria have falsifiable predictions? Second, is identification possible in economies that exhibit multiple equilibria? Put differently, are these economies observationally equivalent to economies with unique equilibria? We raise these questions within a general framework and then study a series of examples to determine how the existing literature has addressed them.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8941.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8941.

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    Date of creation: May 2002
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    Publication status: published as Cooper, Russell W. "Estimation And Identification Of Structural Parameters In The Presence Of Multiple Equilibria," Eastern Economic Journal, v31(1,Winter), 2005, 107-130.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8941

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    1. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1995. "Comments on Farmer and Guo's "the econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study."," Staff Report 196, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Alberto Bisin & Andrea Moro & Giorgio Topa, 2006. "The Empirical Content of Models with Multiple Equilibria," 2006 Meeting Papers 660, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Manski, C.F., 1991. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: the Reflection Problem," Working papers 9127, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    4. Woodford, Michael, 1987. "Three Questions about Sunspot Equilibria as an Explanation of Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 93-98, May.
    5. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Reiss, Peter C., 1991. "Empirical models of discrete games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 57-81.
    6. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1996. "Evidence on Macroeconomic Complementarities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 78-93, February.
    7. Russell Cooper & Alok Johri, 1996. "Dynamic Complementarities: A Quantitative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Benhabib, J. & Farmer, R.E.A, 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Papers 165, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
    9. Moro, Andrea & Norman, Peter, 2004. "A general equilibrium model of statistical discrimination," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-30, January.
    10. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
    11. Russell Cooper & Dean Corbae, 2001. "Financial collapse and active monetary policy: a lesson from the Great Depression," Staff Report 289, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August.
    13. Andrea Moro, 2003. "The Effect Of Statistical Discrimination On Black-White Wage Inequality: Estimating A Model With Multiple Equilibria," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 467-500, 05.
    14. Cooper, Russell & Ejarque, Jo o, 2000. "Financial Intermediation And Aggregate Fluctuations: A Quantitative Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(04), pages 423-447, December.
    15. Coate, Stephen & Loury, Glenn C, 1993. "Will Affirmative-Action Policies Eliminate Negative Stereotypes?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1220-40, December.
    16. Ingram, B.F. & Kocherlakota, N.R. & Savin, N.E., 1992. "Explaining Business Cycles : A Multiple Shock Approach," Working Papers 92-09, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
    17. P. Diamond, 1980. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Working papers 268, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    18. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Autos and the National Industrial Recovery Act: Evidence on Industry Complementarities," NBER Working Papers 4100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. George A. Akerlof, 1997. "Social Distance and Social Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1005-1028, September.
    20. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "Observable Implications of Models with Multiple Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1431-37, November.
    21. Azariadis, Costas & Guesnerie, Roger, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(5), pages 725-37, October.
    22. Cooper,Russell, 1999. "Coordination Games," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521578967, October.
    23. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
    24. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
    25. Cooper,Russell, 1999. "Coordination Games," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521570176, October.
    26. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 1994. "Financial Intermediation and Aggregate Fluctuations: A Quantative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. C.Mónica Capra & Tomomi Tanaka & ColinF. Camerer & Lauren Feiler & Veronica Sovero & CharlesN. Noussair, 2009. "The Impact of Simple Institutions in Experimental Economies with Poverty Traps," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(539), pages 977-1009, 07.
    2. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, 2009. "The Econometrics of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Karp, Larry & Paul, Thierry, 2005. "Friction and the multiplicity of equilibria," CUDARE Working Paper Series 0960R, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
    4. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    5. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2004. "A Search for Multiple Equilibria in Urban Industrial Structure," NBER Working Papers 10252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fukuda, Daisuke & Morichi, Shigeru, 2007. "Incorporating aggregate behavior in an individual's discrete choice: An application to analyzing illegal bicycle parking behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 313-325, May.
    7. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Testing for Indeterminacy in Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 214, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Wirl, Franz & Feichtinger, Gustav, 2005. "History dependence in concave economies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 390-407, August.
    9. Mayer Foulkes, David & Lopez Olivo, Maria Fernanda & Servan Mori, Edson, 2008. "Habilidades Cognitivas: Transmision Intergeneracional Por Niveles Socioeconomicos
      [Cognitive Abilities: Intergenerational Transmission by Socioeconomic Levels]
      ," MPRA Paper 7180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. van den Berg, Gerard J, 2005. "On the Uniqueness of Optimal Prices Set by Monopolistic Sellers," CEPR Discussion Papers 5166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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