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Financial Intermediation and Aggregate Fluctuations: A Quantative Analysis

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Author Info
Russell Cooper
Joao Ejarque

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Abstract

This paper investigates the quantitative implications of two business cycle models in which aggregate fluctuations arise in response to variations in the process of financial intermediation. In the first, fundamental shocks in the capital accumulation process lead to fluctuations in the real returns from intermediated investment. For this economy, we find that the correlations produced are not consistent with observations of the U.S. economy. In particular, consumption is not smoother than output, investment is negatively correlated with output, variations in the capital stock are quite large and interest rates are procyclical. In an economy with both intermediation and total factor productivity shocks, the correlations we produce are closer to those observed in the U.S. economy only when the intermediation shock is relatively unimportant. In the second economy, variations in the returns to intermediation are part of a sunspot equilibrium. Fluctuations here are driven by self-fulfilling beliefs by private agents regarding the returns to intermediation as in an economy beset by banking crises. For this non-linear economy, we find that the correlations are closer to those observed but the variability of capital relative to output is still too large.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4819.

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Date of creation: Aug 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4819

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ali Dib & Ian Christensen, 2005. "Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model with a Financial Accelerator," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 314, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Erik Hjalmarsson & Par Osterholm, 2007. "A residual-based cointegration test for near unit root variables," International Finance Discussion Papers 907, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. João Miguel Ejarque, 1998. "Investment Irreversibility and Precautionary Savings in General Equilibrium," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 1998-08, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  4. Joseph Atta-Mensah & Ali Dib, 2003. "Bank Lending, Credit Shocks, and the Transmission of Canadian Monetary Policy," Working Papers 03-9, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. João Ejarque & Ana Balcão Reis, 2003. "More Lessons from Taking an AK Model to the Data," Discussion Papers 03-37, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2006. "Business cycle accounting," Staff Report 328, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Roland Meeks, 2006. "Credit Shocks and Cycles: a Bayesian Calibration Approach," Economics Papers 2006-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  8. David Aadland, 2002. "Detrending Time-Aggregated Data," Macroeconomics 0301007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Christopher L. House, 2002. "Adverse Selection and the Accelerator," Macroeconomics 0211015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Raimundo Soto, . "Nonlinearities in the Demand for money: A Neural Network Approach," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv107, Ilades-Georgetown University, School of Economics and Bussines. [Downloadable!]
  11. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 1995. "Financial Intermediation and The Great Depression: A Multiple Equilibrium Interpretation," NBER Working Papers 5130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Carol Scotese Lehr, 2001. "Banks and Output Fluctuations," Working Papers 0101, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
  13. Russell W. Cooper, 2005. "Estimation and Identification of Structural Parameters in the Presence of Multiple Equilibria," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, Winter. [Downloadable!]
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