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Estimation and Identification of Structural Parameters in the Presence of Multiple Equilibria

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  • Russell W. Cooper

    (Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

This paper studies quantitative implications of model economies that exhibit multiple equilibria. The goal is to assess two interrelated issues. First, do economies with multiple equilibria have falsifiable predictions? Second, is the identification of structural parameters possible in economies that exhibit multiple equilibria? We raise these questions within a general framework and then study a series of examples to determine how the existing literature has addressed them. These examples illustrate cases in which parameters can be identified and models falsified.

Suggested Citation

  • Russell W. Cooper, 2005. "Estimation and Identification of Structural Parameters in the Presence of Multiple Equilibria," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:31:y:2005:i:1:p:107-130
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Cooper, Russell W. & Johri, Alok, 1997. "Dynamic complementarities: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 97-119, September.
    3. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    4. Cooper,Russell, 1999. "Coordination Games," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521578967.
    5. Andrea Moro, 2003. "The Effect Of Statistical Discrimination On Black-White Wage Inequality: Estimating A Model With Multiple Equilibria," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 467-500, May.
    6. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September.
    7. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Increasing Returns and Animal Spirits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 889-894, September.
    8. George A. Akerlof, 1997. "Social Distance and Social Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1005-1028, September.
    9. Ingram, Beth Fisher & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1994. "Explaining business cycles: A multiple-shock approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 415-428, December.
    10. Cooper, Russell & Ejarque, João, 2000. "Financial Intermediation And Aggregate Fluctuations: A Quantitative Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 423-447, December.
    11. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1995. "Comments on Farmer and Guo's \\"the econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study.\\"," Staff Report 196, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. Russell Cooper & Andrew John, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(3), pages 441-463.
    13. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-894, October.
    14. Kamihigashi, Takashi, 1996. "Real business cycles and sunspot fluctuations are observationally equivalent," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 105-117, February.
    15. Moro, Andrea & Norman, Peter, 2004. "A general equilibrium model of statistical discrimination," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-30, January.
    16. repec:cup:macdyn:v:4:y:2000:i:4:p:423-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. John Bryant, 1983. "A Simple Rational Expectations Keynes-type Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(3), pages 525-528.
    18. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
    19. Costas Azariadis & Roger Guesnerie, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(5), pages 725-737.
    20. Cooper, Russell & Corbae, Dean, 2002. "Financial Collapse: A Lesson from the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 159-190, December.
    21. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    22. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "Observable Implications of Models with Multiple Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1431-1437, November.
    23. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
    24. Woodford, Michael, 1987. "Three Questions about Sunspot Equilibria as an Explanation of Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 93-98, May.
    25. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger, 1993. "Automobiles and the National Industrial Recovery Act: Evidence on Industry Complementarities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 1043-1071.
    26. Coate, Stephen & Loury, Glenn C, 1993. "Will Affirmative-Action Policies Eliminate Negative Stereotypes?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1220-1240, December.
    27. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
    28. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Reiss, Peter C., 1991. "Empirical models of discrete games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 57-81.
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    Cited by:

    1. C. Mónica Capra & Tomomi Tanaka & Colin F. Camerer & Lauren Feiler & Veronica Sovero & Charles N. Noussair, 2009. "The Impact of Simple Institutions in Experimental Economies with Poverty Traps," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(539), pages 977-1009, July.
    2. Julien, Ludovic A., 2011. "Unemployment equilibrium and economic policy in mixed markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1931-1940, July.
    3. Vivian Lei & Charles N. Noussair, 2007. "Equilibrium Selection in an Experimental Macroeconomy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(2), pages 448-482, October.
    4. Duane W. Rockerbie & Stephen T. Easton, 2010. "The Ebbs and Flows of the Game: Multiple Equilibria in a Sports League Model," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(2), pages 172-185, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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