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Financial Intermediation and The Great Depression: A Multiple Equilibrium Interpretation

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Author Info
Russell Cooper
Joao Ejarque

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Abstract

This paper explores the behavior of the U.S. economy during the interwar period from the perspective of a model in which the existence of non-convexities in the intermediation process gives rise to a multiplicity of equilibria. The resulting indeterminancy is resolved through a sunspot process which leads to endogenous fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. From this perspective, the Depression period is represented as a regime shift associated with a financial crisis. Our model economy has properties which are broadly consistent with observations over the interwar period. Contrary to observation, the model predicts a negative correlation of consumption and investment as well as a highly volatile capital stock. Our model of financial crisis reproduces many aspects of the Great Depression though the model predicts a much sharper fall in investment than is observed in the data. Modifications to our model (adding durable goods and a capacity utilization choice) do not overcome these deficiencies.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5130.

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Date of creation: May 1995
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5130

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

References listed on IDEAS
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  3. John Dagsvik & Boyan Jovanovic, 1995. "Was the Great Depression a Low-Level Equilibrium?," NBER Working Papers 3726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Diaz-Gimenez, Javier & Prescott, Edward C. & Fitzgerald, Terry & Alvarez, Fernando, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 533-559. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 1994. "Financial Intermediation and Aggregate Fluctuations: A Quantative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23. [Downloadable!]
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  31. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Russell Cooper & Dean Corbae, 1997. "Financial Fragility and the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 6094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. repec:att:wimass:192055 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2003. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," NBER Working Papers 10128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Luis Carranza & José E. Galdón-Sánchez, 2002. "Financial Intermediation, Variability and the Development Process," Faculty Working Papers 04/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Russell Cooper & Dean Corbae, 2001. "Financial collapse and active monetary policy: a lesson from the Great Depression," Staff Report 289, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Harrison, Sharon G & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Did Sunspot Forces Cause the Great Depression?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Russell W. Cooper, 1997. "Business Cycles: Theory, Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 5994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Barry Eichengreen, 2002. "Still Fettered After All These Years," NBER Working Papers 9276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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