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Financial collapse and active monetary policy: a lesson from the Great Depression

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Author Info
Russell Cooper
Dean Corbae

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Abstract

We analyze financial collapses, such as the one that occurred during the U.S. Great Depression, from the perspective of a monetary model with multiple equilibria. The multiplicity arises from the presence of a strategic complementarity due to increasing returns to scale in the intermediation process. Intermediaries provide the link between savers and firms who require working capital for production. Fluctuations in the intermediation process are driven by variations in the confidence agents place in the financial system. From a positive perspective, our model matches closely the qualitative changes in important financial and real variables (the currency/deposit ratio, ex-post real interest rates, the level of intermediated activity, deflation, employment and production) over the Great Depression period, an experience often attributed to financial collapse. Further, we show how adding liquidity to the banking system through increases in the money supply is sufficient to overcome strategic uncertainty and thus avoid financial collapse.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 289.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:289

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Keywords: Depressions ; Monetary policy;

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  2. Russell Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 1995. "Financial Intermediation and The Great Depression: A Multiple Equilibrium Interpretation," NBER Working Papers 5130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Satyajit Chatterjee & Russell W. Cooper & B. Ravikumar, 1993. "Strategic complementarity in business formation: aggregate fluctuations and sunspot equilibria," Working Papers 93-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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  14. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Increasing Returns and Animal Spirits," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 889-94, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Corbae, Dean, 1992. "Endogenous Market Participation and the General Equilibrium Value of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 615-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Bruce Champ & Bruce D. Smith & Stephen D. Williamson, 1996. "Currency Elasticity and Banking Panics: Theory and Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 828-64, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Bryant, John, 1987. "The Paradox of Thrift, Liquidity Preference and Animal Spirits," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1231-35, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Harrison, Sharon G & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Did Sunspot Forces Cause the Great Depression?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Huberto Ennis & Todd Keister, 2001. "Optimal policy with probabilistic equilibrium selection," Working Paper 01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  3. John Bryant, 2005. "Fiat Money and Coordination: A "Perverse" Coexistence of Private Notes and Fiat Money," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 377-381, Summer. [Downloadable!]
  4. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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