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Did Sunspot Forces Cause the Great Depression?

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Author Info
Harrison, Sharon G
Weder, Mark

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Abstract

We apply a dynamic general equilibrium model to the period of the Great Depression. In particular, we examine a modification of the real business cycle model in which the possibility of indeterminacy of equilibria arises. In other words, agents' self-fulfilling expectations can serve as a primary impulse behind fluctuations. We find that the model, driven only by these measured sunspot shocks, can explain well the entire Depression era; that is, the decline from 1929-32, the subsequent slow recovery and the recession that occurred in 1937-38.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3267.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3267

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Keywords: dynamic general equilibrium great depression sunspots

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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  15. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 2000. "Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1447-1463, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Cooper, Russell & Ejarque, Joao, 1995. "Financial intermediation and the Great Depression: a multiple equilibrium interpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43, pages 285-323, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2004. "The great depression and the Friedman-Schwartz hypothesis," Working Paper Series 326, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2005. "Great expectations and the end of the depression," Staff Reports 234, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ron Smith & Gylfi Zoega, 2007. "Global Factors, Unemployment Adjustment and the Natural Rate," Kiel Working Papers 1367, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Weder, Mark, 2004. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 4191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Mark Weder, 2004. " The Role of Preference Shocks and Capital Utilization in the Great Depression," CDMA Working Paper Series 0405, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2003. "Instability of sunspot equilibria in real business cycles under adaptive learning," Working Papers 2003-03, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  7. Tarek Coury & Yi Wen, 2007. "Global indeterminacy in locally determinate RBC models," Working Papers 2007-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Xiao, Wei, 2003. "Explaining speculative expansions," Working Papers 2003-02, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Imperfect competition and indeterminacy of aggregate output," Working Papers 2006-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2004. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 10255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Weder, Mark, 2001. "The Great Demand Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 3067, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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