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The Great Demand Depression

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Weder, Mark

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Abstract

This Paper entertains the notion that disturbances on the demand side play a central role in our understanding of the Great Depression. In fact, from Euler equation residuals I am able to identify a series of unusually large negative demand shocks that appeared to have hit the US economy during the 1930s. I apply these measured demand shocks to a dynamic general equilibrium model and find that size and sequence of shocks can generate a pattern of the model economy that is not unlike data. The model is able to account for the lion’s share of the decline in economic activity and is able to exaggerate realistic persistence.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3067.

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Date of creation: Nov 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3067

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Related research
Keywords: demand shocks dynamic general equilibrium great depression

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Michael D. Bordo & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Labor Productivity During the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 4415, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
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  4. Harold L. Cole and Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 779-816, August.
    Other versions:
  5. Robert E. Hall, 1986. "The Role of Consumption in Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 1391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Harrison, Sharon G & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Did Sunspot Forces Cause the Great Depression?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Working Papers 1450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Why did productivity fall so much during the Great Depression?," Staff Report 285, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Eichenbaum, Martin S & Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1988. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption and Leisure Choice under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 51-78, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 2000. "Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1447-1463, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Edward C. Prescott, 1999. "Some observations on the Great Depression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 25-29. [Downloadable!]
  13. Bencivenga, Valerie R, 1992. "An Econometric Study of Hours and Output Variation with Preference Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(2), pages 449-71, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Hall, Robert E, 1997. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Time," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages S223-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Benhabib, Jess & Wen, Yi, 2004. "Indeterminacy, aggregate demand, and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 503-530, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Bernanke, Ben S & Parkinson, Martin L, 1991. "Procyclical Labor Productivity and Competing Theories of the Business Cycle: Some Evidence from Interwar U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 439-59, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Robert E. Hall, 1987. "Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Romer, Christina D, 1990. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 597-624, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yi Wen, 2006. "Demand shocks and economic fluctuations," Working Papers 2006-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Weder, Mark, 2003. "Some Observations on the Great Depression in Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 3716, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Luca, PENSIEROSO, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models of the Great Depression : a Critical Survey," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2005005, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Mark Weder, 2004. " The Role of Preference Shocks and Capital Utilization in the Great Depression," CDMA Working Paper Series 0405, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Yi Wen, 2005. "By force of demand: explaining international comovements and the saving-investment correlation puzzle," Working Papers 2005-043, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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