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Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale

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Author Info
Ray C. Fair
Matthew D. Shapiro
Kathryn M. Dominguez

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Abstract

Was the Depression forecastable? After the Crash, how long did it take contemporary economic forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? How long should it Have taken them to come to this realization? These questions are addressed by studying the predictions of the Harvard Economic Service and Yale's Irving Fisher during 1929 and the early 1930's. The data assembled by the Harvard and Yale forecasters are subjected to modern statistical analysis to learn whether their verbal pronouncements were consistent with the data. We find that both the Harvard and Yale forecasters were systematically too optimistic, yet nothing in the data suggests that the optimism was unwarranted.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2095.

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Date of creation: Feb 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2095

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  1. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1985. "Trends, random walks, and tests of the permanent income hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 165-174, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Romer, Christina D, 1986. "Is the Stabilization of the Postwar Economy a Figment of the Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 314-34, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A & Weil, David N, 1987. "The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 358-74, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Ritschl, Albrecht & Woitek, Ulrich, 2000. "Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2547, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Peter Rappoport & Eugene N. White, 1991. "Was there a bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," NBER Working Papers 3612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2009. "Los Barómetros de Harvard: ¿Permitían Pedecir la Depresión de 1929?
    [Harvard Barometers: Did they allow to predict the Great Depression of 1929?]    ," MPRA Paper 16411, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "The 1929 stock market: Irving Fisher was right," Staff Report 294, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Eugene N. White & John Landon-Lane & Adam Klug, 2002. "How Could Everyone Have Been So Wrong? Forecasting The Great Depression With The Railroads," Departmental Working Papers 200209, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Albrecht Ritschl & Ulrich Woitek, 2000. "Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? A Bayesian VAR Analysis for the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 2000_07, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1989. "Prices during the Great Depression: Was the Deflation of 1930-32 really unanticipated?," NBER Working Papers 3174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Christina Romer & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1989. "A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884-1940," NBER Working Papers 3172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Randall E. Parker & Phillip Rothman & Original: August 2000. This version: June 2003., . "An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre-World War I and Interwar Periods," Working Papers 0302, East Carolina University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Ritschl, Albrecht & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2003. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-war Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 4112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Giovanni Favero, 2007. "Weather forecast or rain-dance? On inter-war business barometers," Working Papers 2007_14, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hans Joachim Voth, 2000. "With a Bang, not a Whimper: Pricking Germany's "Stock Market Bubble" in 1927 and the Slide into Depression," Economics Working Papers 516, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Henry, Peter B., 2001. "Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?," Research Papers 1681, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Understanding the Great Depression: Lessons for Current Policy," NBER Working Papers 6015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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