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Could Stable Money Have Averted The Great Contraction?

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Author Info
Michael D. Bordo
Ehsan U. Choudhri
Anna J. Schwartz

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Abstract

We test the hypothesis that the Great Contraction would have been attenuated had the Fed not allowed the money stock to decline. We do so by simulating a model that estimates separate relations for output and the price level and assumes that output and price dynamics are not especially sensitive to policy changes. The simulations include a strong and a weak form of Friedman's constant money growth rule. The results support the hypothesis that the Great Contraction would have been mitigated and shortened had the Fed followed a constant money growth rule.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4481.

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Date of creation: Sep 1995
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4481

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E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Boughton, James M & Wicker, Elmus R, 1979. "The Behavior of the Currency-Deposit Ratio during the Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 405-18, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ben Bernanke & Frederic Mishkin, 1993. "Central Bank Behavior and the Strategy of Monetary Policy: Observations From Six Industrialized Countries," NBER Working Papers 4082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Georgios Karras, 1992. "Sources of Output Fluctuations During the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 4049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hafer, R W & Jansen, Dennis W, 1991. "The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 155-68, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. David C. Wheelock, 1992. "Monetary policy in the Great Depression: what the Fed did and why," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 3-28. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 2000. "Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1447-1463, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1997. "Implications of the Great Depression for the Development of the International Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 5883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Martin Feldstein, 1997. "The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the1986 Tax Reform Act," NBER Working Papers 4496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Michael Bordo, 2000. "Sound Money and Sound Financial Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 129-155, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2004. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 10255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Robert Rasche, 1995. "Pitfalls in counterfactual analyses of policy rules," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 199-202, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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