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Integrated regressors and tests of the permanent-income hypothesis

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  • Stock, James H.
  • West, Kenneth D.

Abstract

We use recent research on estimation and testing in the presence of unit roots to argue that Hall's (1978) t and F tests of whether consumption is predicted by lagged income, or by lags of consumption beyond the first, are asymptotically valid. A Monte Carlo experiment suggests that the asymptotic t and F distributions provide a good approximation to the actual finite sample distribution.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (1988)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 85-95

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:21:y:1988:i:1:p:85-95

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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References

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  1. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1979. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 161, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  3. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Asymptotic Normality, When Regressors Have a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1397-1417, November.
  4. Charles R. Nelson, 1987. "A Reappraisal of Recent Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  6. Matthew D. Shapiro & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1984. "Trends, Random Walks, and Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 725, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  9. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November.
  10. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  11. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
  12. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Shabtai Donnenfeld & Alfred A. Haug, 2008. "Currency invoicing of US imports," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 184-198.
  2. Hannes Kaadu & Lenno Uusküla, 2004. "Liquidity Constrains and Ricardian Equivalence in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2004-7, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2004.
  3. Sweeney, Richard J., 2007. "Fed intervention, dollar appreciation, and systematic risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 167-192, March.
  4. Yu, Ge, 2005. "Excess sensitivity of consumption using micro data in the UK," MPRA Paper 548, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
  5. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kenneth D. West, 1993. "Inventory Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, . "Real Interest Rates, Liquidity Constraints and Financial Deregulation: Private Consumption Behaviour in the UK," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 97-12, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  8. Brunila, Anne, 1996. "Fiscal Policy and Private Consumption – Saving Decisions: Evidence from Finland," Research Discussion Papers 28/1996, Bank of Finland.
  9. Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1994. "Inference in Time Series Regression When the Order of Integration of a Regressor is Unknown," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 672-700, August.

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