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Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look Back at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms

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Michael D. Bordo
David C. Wheelock

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Abstract

This paper examines the economic environments in which past U.S. stock market booms occurred as a first step toward understanding how asset price booms come about and whether monetary policy should be used to defuse booms. We identify several episodes of sustained rapid rise in equity prices in the 19th and 20th Centuries, and then assess the growth of real output, productivity, the price level, money and credit stocks during each episode. Two booms stand out in terms of their length and rate of increase in market prices -- the booms of 1923-29 and 1994-2000. In general, we find that booms occurred in periods of rapid real growth and productivity advance, suggesting that booms are driven at least partly by fundamentals. We find no consistent relationship between inflation and stock market booms, though booms have typically occurred when money and credit growth were above average.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10704.

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Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10704

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bjørnland , Hilde & Leitemo, Kai, 2005. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Research Discussion Papers 17/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Lillian Cheung & Chi-Sang Tam, 2009. "Role of Credit in Equity Market Booms and Busts," Working Papers 0904, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2007. "The role of credit aggregates and asset prices in the transmission mechanism: a comparison between the euro area and the US," Working Paper Series 816, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Philipp Bagus, 2008. "Monetary policy as bad medicine: The volatile relationship between business cycles and asset prices," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 283-300, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2007. "Stock market booms and monetary policy in the twentieth century," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 91-122. [Downloadable!]
  6. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2006. "When do stock market booms occur? the macroeconomic and policy environments of 20th century booms," Working Papers 2006-051, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Charles Engel & Akito Matsumoto, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in a Monetary Open-Economy DSGE Model," IMF Working Papers 05/165, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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