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It Takes More than a Bubble to Become Japan

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Author Info
Adam S. Posen () (Institute for International Economics)

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Abstract

Did monetary easing in the 1980s cause Japan's bubble, as is often suggested? Drawing on both a new cross-national consideration of the monetary policy-asset price linkage and a reexamination of what actually occurred in Japan during 1985-90, I conclude that the bubble was just as likely to occur, whatever monetary policy within reason would have done. Did the bubble's bursting cause Japan's Great Recession? In fact, Japan's recession of 1990-94 was mild, and only a combination of policy mistakes turned this normal recession into extended stagnation. This is borne out by cross-national investigation suggesting that the frequency of extended downturns following asset booms is relatively low. Comparing the post-bubble response of the US and Japanese economies, did the bubble itself impede restructuring? Given very different responses in the two economies to similar bubbles, a bubble itself is not sufficient to cause real-side disruption. Central bankers should learn from Japan's bubble the benefits of a more thoughtful approach to assessing potential growth and of easing rapidly in the face of asset price declines and not be concerned with targeting asset prices or pricking bubbles per se.

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Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Peterson Institute Working Paper Series with number WP03-9.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp03-9

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Related research
Keywords: deflation; bubbles; monetary policy; Japan;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  2. Patrick McGuire, 2003. "Bank Ties and Bond Market Access: Evidence on Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivity in Japan," NBER Working Papers 9644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  5. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Takatoshi Ito & Tokuo Iwaisako, 1995. "Explaining Asset Bubbles in Japan," NBER Working Papers 5358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kasa, Ken & Popper, Helen, 1997. "Monetary Policy in Japan: A Structural VAR Analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 275-295, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. David C. Smith, 2003. "Loans to Japanese borrowers," International Finance Discussion Papers 769, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1995. "The Effect of Credit Market Competition on Lending Relationships," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 407-43, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Frederic S. Mishkin & Eugene N. White, 2002. "U.S. Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 1999. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Working Papers 7250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does 'Benign Neglect' Make Sense?," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 139-64, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  15. Marcus Miller & Paul Weller & Lei Zhang, 2002. "Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: Analysing the "Greenspan Put"," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C171-C186, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. van Rixtel, Adrian A. R. J. M. & Hassink, Wolter H. J., 2002. "Monitoring the Monitors: Are Old Boys Networks Being Used to Monitor Japanese Private Banks?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Takatoshi Ito & Yuri Nagataki Sasaki, 1998. "Impacts of the Basle Capital Standard on Japanese Banks' Behavior," Discussion Paper Series a356, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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  18. Patrick M. McGuire, 2003. "Bank ties and bond market access : evidence on investment-cash flow sensitivity in Japan," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 216-241.
  19. Bayoumi, Tamim, 2001. "The morning after: explaining the slowdown in Japanese growth in the 1990s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 241-259, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Morck, Randall & Nakamura, Masao & Shivdasani, Anil, 2000. "Banks, Ownership Structure, and Firm Value in Japan," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), pages 539-67, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "The Great Recession: Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy from Japan," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2001-2), pages 93-186. [Downloadable!]
  23. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Posen, Adam S., 2004. "The difficulty of discerning what's too tight: Taylor rules and Japanese monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 53-74, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Posen, Adam S., 2002. "Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 536-558, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Kazuo Ogawa, 2003. "Financial Distress and Employment: The Japanese Case in the 90s," NBER Working Papers 9646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Adam S. Posen, 2003. "Is Germany Turning Japanese?," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP03-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  27. David E. Weinstein & Yishay Yafeh, 1998. "On the Costs of a Bank-Centered Financial System: Evidence from the Changing Main Bank Relations in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 635-672, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2000. "Inflation, Monetary Transparency, and G3 Exchange Rate Volatility," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP00-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andreas Humpe & Peter D. Macmillan, 2005. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0511, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2007. "Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy, House Prices and Labor Market Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 2547, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  3. Adam S. Posen, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Not Burst Bubbles," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP06-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: the investment channel," NIPE Working Papers 3/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  5. Daniel Leigh, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Dangers of Deflation:Lessons from Japan," Economics Working Paper Archive 511, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Barry Eichengreen, 2008. "Should there be a coordinated response to the problem of global imbalances? Can there be one?," Working Papers 69, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
  7. Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2008. "Asset prices and monetary policy: booms and fat tails in East Asia," BIS Working Papers 243, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look Back at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms," NBER Working Papers 10704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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