Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

It Takes More than a Bubble to Become Japan

Contents:

Author Info

  • Adam S. Posen

    ()
    (Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Did monetary easing in the 1980s cause Japan's bubble, as is often suggested? Drawing on both a new cross-national consideration of the monetary policy-asset price linkage and a reexamination of what actually occurred in Japan during 1985-90, I conclude that the bubble was just as likely to occur, whatever monetary policy within reason would have done. Did the bubble's bursting cause Japan's Great Recession? In fact, Japan's recession of 1990-94 was mild, and only a combination of policy mistakes turned this normal recession into extended stagnation. This is borne out by cross-national investigation suggesting that the frequency of extended downturns following asset booms is relatively low. Comparing the post-bubble response of the US and Japanese economies, did the bubble itself impede restructuring? Given very different responses in the two economies to similar bubbles, a bubble itself is not sufficient to cause real-side disruption. Central bankers should learn from Japan's bubble the benefits of a more thoughtful approach to assessing potential growth and of easing rapidly in the face of asset price declines and not be concerned with targeting asset prices or pricking bubbles per se.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/wp/03-9.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number WP03-9.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp03-9

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036-1903
Phone: 202-328-9000
Fax: 202-659-3225
Email:
Web page: http://www.piie.com
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: deflation; bubbles; monetary policy; Japan;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  2. Kenneth Kasa & Helen Popper, 1995. "Monetary policy in Japan: a structural VAR analysis," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 95-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Morck, Randall & Nakamura, Masao & Shivdasani, Anil, 2000. "Banks, Ownership Structure, and Firm Value in Japan," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), pages 539-67, October.
  4. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2003. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," NBER Working Papers 9643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. David C. Smith, 2003. "Loans to Japanese borrowers," International Finance Discussion Papers 769, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 17-51.
  7. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114, February.
  8. Smith, David C., 2003. "Loans to Japanese borrowers," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-304, September.
  9. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Posen, Adam S., 2004. "The difficulty of discerning what's too tight: Taylor rules and Japanese monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 53-74, March.
  10. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2000. "Inflation, Monetary Transparency, and G3 Exchange Rate Volatility," Working Paper Series WP00-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  11. Edwin M. Truman, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in the World Economy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 346.
  12. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 1999. "Asset Price Fluctuation and Price Indices," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 103-128, December.
  14. Patrick McGuire, 2003. "Bank Ties and Bond Market Access: Evidence on Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivity in Japan," NBER Working Papers 9644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Bayoumi, Tamim, 2001. "The morning after: explaining the slowdown in Japanese growth in the 1990s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 241-259, April.
  16. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "The Great Recession: Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy from Japan," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 93-186.
  17. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Posen, Adam S., 2002. "Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 536-558, December.
  18. David E. Weinstein & Yishay Yafeh, 1998. "On the Costs of a Bank-Centered Financial System: Evidence from the Changing Main Bank Relations in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 635-672, 04.
  19. Frederic S. Mishkin & Eugene N. White, 2002. "U.S. Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does 'Benign Neglect' Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-64, Summer.
  21. Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Restoring Japan's Economic Growth," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 35.
  22. Mitchell A. Petersen & Raghuram G. Rajan, 1994. "The Effect of Credit Market Competition on Lending Relationships," NBER Working Papers 4921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Thomas F. Cargill & Michael M. Hutchison & Takatoshi Ito, 2001. "Financial Policy and Central Banking in Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262032856, December.
  24. Marcus Miller & Paul Weller & Lei Zhang, 2002. "Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: Analysing the "Greenspan Put"," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C171-C186, March.
  25. Takatoshi Ito & Tokuo Iwaisako, 1995. "Explaining Asset Bubbles in Japan," NBER Working Papers 5358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 2000. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 129-212 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Michael M. Hutchison, 1993. "Asset price fluctuations in Japan: what role for monetary policy?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 93-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  28. van Rixtel, Adrian A. R. J. M. & Hassink, Wolter H. J., 2002. "Monitoring the Monitors: Are Old Boys Networks Being Used to Monitor Japanese Private Banks?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-30, March.
  29. Olivier Jeanne & Michael D. Bordo, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 02/225, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Kazuo Ogawa, 2003. "Financial Distress and Employment: The Japanese Case in the 90s," NBER Working Papers 9646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Adam S. Posen, 2003. "Is Germany Turning Japanese?," Working Paper Series WP03-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Andreas Humpe & Peter D. Macmillan, 2005. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0511, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm.
  2. Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro, 2008. "Asset booms and fat tails in East Asia: Symmetric or asymmetric risks?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1617-1640, December.
  3. Kenneth N Kuttner, 2008. "Equity prices as leading indicators: the Asian experience," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy, volume 39, pages 167-192 Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Canares, Michael, 2009. "Macro-economic trends and their impacts on forests and forestry in Asia and the Pacific, outlook to 2020," MPRA Paper 28970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2005. "Monetary policy and asset prices: the investment channel," NIPE Working Papers 3/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  7. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 39, May.
  8. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look Back at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms," NBER Working Papers 10704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2007. "Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy, House Prices and Labor Market Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 2547, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Barry Eichengreen, 2008. "Should there be a coordinated response to the problem of global imbalances? Can there be one?," Working Papers 69, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
  11. Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2008. "Asset prices and monetary policy: booms and fat tails in East Asia," BIS Working Papers 243, Bank for International Settlements.
  12. Daniel Leigh, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Dangers of Deflation:Lessons from Japan," Economics Working Paper Archive 511, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  13. Adam S. Posen, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Not Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 109-124, 05.
  14. Kenneth Kuttner, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility: Should We Refill the Bernanke-Gertler Prescription?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-04, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Jun 2011.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp03-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peterson Institute webmaster).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.