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Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem

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Author Info
Takatoshi Ito
Frederic S. Mishkin

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Abstract

This paper reviews Japanese monetary policy over the last two decades with an emphasis on the experience of deflation from the mid-1990s. The paper is quite critical of the conduct of monetary policy, particularly from 1998 to 2003. The Bank of Japan's rhetoric was not helpful in fighting deflation, and the interest rate hike in August 2000 amid deflation was a serious mistake. Deflation can be quite costly, and a key element in both preventing and escaping deflation is the management of expectations, using either price level or inflation targeting, because the zero lower bound on interest rates means that the overnight interest rate can no longer be used as the instrument of monetary policy. This paper proposes how to best manage expectations to exit deflation. Price-level targeting overcomes theoretical problems, such as need for a history dependent strategy, associated with inflation targeting. However, because actions speak louder than words, management of expectations also involves non-conventional monetary policies, a combination of which might have to be tried to help the Japanese economy escape its deflationary trap.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10878.

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Date of creation: Nov 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10878

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Takeshi Kobayashi & Mark Spiegel & Nobuyoshi Yamori, 2006. "Quantitative easing and Japanese bank equity values," Working Paper Series 2006-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2005. "The Fed after Greenspan," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 317-332, Summer. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul Mizen & Tae-Hwan Kim & Alan Thanaset, 2007. "Evaluating the Taylor Principle Over the Distribution of the Interest Rate: Evidence from the US, UK and Japan," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 51, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  4. R. Anton Braun & Yuichiro Waki, 2005. "Monetary Policy during Japan's Lost Decade," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-343, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2005. "Flexibility in inflation targeting, financial markets and macroeconomic stability," MPRA Paper 13864, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Takatoshi Ito, 2005. "Interventions and Japanese economic recovery," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 219-239, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Claudio Morana, 2004. "The Japanese Deflation: Has It Had Real Effects? Could It Have Been Avoided?," ICER Working Papers 29-2004, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Gunther Schnabl & Christian Danne, 2005. "The Changing Role of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate for Japanese Monetary Policy," International Finance 0503001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2006. "On Lower-bound Traps: A Framework for the Analysis of Monetary Policy in the ÒAgeÓ of Central Banks," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_478, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  10. Takatoshi Ito, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Japan: Why has the Bank of Japan not Adopted Inflation Targeting?," NBER Working Papers 10818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "Time of Troubles: The Yen and Japan's Economy, 1985-2008," NBER Working Papers 14816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2007. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy: Lessons from Japan," Working Papers UWEC-2008-12, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2005. "Liquidity and growth traps: a framework for the analysis of macroeconomic policy in the 'age' of Central Banks," Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales 05-02, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. [Downloadable!]
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