Advanced Search

Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: Analysing the "Greenspan Put"

Contents:

Author Info

  • Marcus Miller

    (University of Warwick and CEPR)

  • Paul Weller

    (University of Iowa)

  • Lei Zhang

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

When the risk premium in the US stock market fell substantially, Shiller (2000) attributed this to a bubble driven by psychological factors. An alternative explanation is that the observed risk premium may be reduced by one-sided intervention policy on the part of the Federal Reserve which leads investors into the erroneous belief that they are insured against downside risk. By allowing for partial credibility and state dependent risk aversion, we show that this "insurance" — referred to as the Greenspan put — is consistent with the observation that implied volatility rises as the market falls. Our bubble is not so much "irrational exuberance" as exaggerated faith in the stabilising power of Mr. Greenspan. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2002.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=ecoj&volume=112&issue=478&year=2002&part=null
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 112 (2002)
Issue (Month): 478 (March)
Pages: C171-C186
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:112:y:2002:i:478:p:c171-c186

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.blackwellpublishers.co.uk/asp/journal.asp?ref=0013-0133

For corrections or technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  2. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
  3. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
  4. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1988. "The equity risk premium: A solution?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 133-136, July.
  5. Lintner, John, 1975. "Inflation and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 259-80, May.
  6. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N & Ross, Stephen A, 1995. " Survival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 853-73, July.
  7. Marcus Miller & Paul Weller & Lei Zhang, 2000. "Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: Has Mr. Greenspan Created a Bubble?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1902, Econometric Society.
  8. Firth, Michael, 1979. "The Relationship between Stock Market Returns and Rates of Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(3), pages 743-49, June.
  9. Campbell, John Y., 1999. "Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 19, pages 1231-1303 Elsevier.
  10. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
  11. Hali Edison & Pongsak Luangaram & Marcus Miller, 1998. "Asset Bubbles, Domino Effects and 'Lifeboats': Elements of the East Asian Crisis," CSGR Working papers series 05/98, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick.
  12. Schwert, G William, 1981. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Information about Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 15-29, March.
  13. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
  1. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "An Assessment of the New Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Hammoudeh, S.M. & Liu, T. & Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2011. "Risk Spillovers in Oil-Related CDS, Stock and Credit Markets," Econometric Institute Report EI 2011-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
  3. Adam S. Posen, 2003. "It Takes More than a Bubble to Become Japan," Working Paper Series WP03-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  4. Adam S. Posen, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Not Burst Bubbles," Working Paper Series WP06-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  5. Romaniuk, Katarzyna & Vranceanu, Radu, 2008. "Asset Prices and Assymetries in the Fed's Interest Rate Rule : a Financial Approach," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08006, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  6. Salomón Kalmanovitz, 2001. "El Banco De La República Y El Régimen De Meta De Inflación," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002460, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Marcus Miller & Olli Castrén & Lei Zhang, 2007. "'Irrational exuberance' and capital flows for the US New Economy: a simple global model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 89-105.
  8. Marco Mazzoli, 2004. "Investments, financial structure and insiders' control of the cash-flow: an intertemporal discrete-time framework and a qualitative analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 61, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  9. Eugene N. White, 2009. "Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s," NBER Working Papers 15573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. William R. Emmons & Frank A. Schmid, 2002. "Cracks in the facade: American economic and financial structures after the boom," Working Papers 2002-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  11. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302 Elsevier.
  12. Salomón Kalmanovitz, . "El Banco de la República y el Régimen de Meta de Inflación," Borradores de Economia 193, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  13. Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake & Helmut Stix, 2011. "Households’ Foreign Currency Borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 171, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  14. Marco Mazzoli, 2005. "Investments, financial structure and imperfect financial markets: An intertemporal discrete-time framework," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 247-258.
  15. Mazzoli, Marco, 2005. "Financial Markets and R&D Investments: A Discrete-Time Model to Interpret Public Policies," Working Papers RP2005/70, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  16. Helmut Wagner, 2010. "The causes of the recent financial crisis and the role of central banks in avoiding the next one," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 63-82, May.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:112:y:2002:i:478:p:c171-c186

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.