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Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence

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  • Sellin, Peter
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    Abstract

    This paper gives a comprehensive review of the literature on the interaction between real stock returns, inflation, and money growth, with a special emphasis on the role of monetary policy. This is an area of research that has interested monetary and financial economists for a long time. Monetary economists have been interested in the question whether money has any effect on real stock prices, while financial economists have investigated whether equity is a good hedge against inflation. Empirical studies show that money can be helpful in predicting future stock returns. Empirical evidence also suggest that equity is not a good hedge against inflation in the short run but may be so in the long run. The short-run negative relation between stock returns and inflation can easily be explained by theoretical models. If the central bank conducts a countercyclical monetary policy this will result in a negative relation between inflation and stock returns, while if it conducts a procyclical policy we could observe a positive relation. According to both theoretical and empirical studies investors receive an inflation risk premium for holding equity. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Economic Surveys.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 4 (September)
    Pages: 491-541

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:15:y:2001:i:4:p:491-541

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    Cited by:
    1. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    2. Ali K. Ozdagli & Yifan Yu, 2012. "Monetary shocks and stock returns: identification through the impossible trinity," Working Papers 12-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Don Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Dirk Nitzsche & Gerard O'Reilly, 2009. "European monetary policy surprises: the aggregate and sectoral stock market response," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 156-171.
    4. Ray Sturm, 2013. "Economic policy and the presidential election cycle in stock returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 200-215, April.
    5. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2004. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-399, April.
    6. Don Bredin & Caroline Gavin & Gerard O Reilly, 2003. "The Influence of Domestic and International Interest Rates on the ISEQ," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 249–265.
    7. Robert-Paul Berben, 2003. "Does stock market uncertainty impair the use of monetary indicators in the euro area?," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-15, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2013. "Money, Stock Prices and Central Banks – Cross-Country Comparisons of Cointegrated VAR Models," ROME Working Papers 201308, ROME Network.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Stock Prices and Central Banks - Cross-Country Comparisons of Cointegrated VAR Models," Ruhr Economic Papers 0435, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Tang, Yong & Luo, Yong & Xiong, Jie & Zhao, Fei & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2013. "Impact of monetary policy changes on the Chinese monetary and stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4435-4449.
    11. Paul Söderlind, 2006. "Monetary Policy Effects on Financial Risk Premia," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2006 2006-26, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    12. Heimonen, Kari, 2010. "Money and equity returns in the Euro area," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 152-169.
    13. Vladimir Klyuev, 2008. "Real Implications of Financial Linkages Between Canada and the United States," IMF Working Papers 08/23, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Khan, Mashrur Mustaque & Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices:Evidence from the Bangladesh Stock Market," MPRA Paper 46528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Stefano Neri, 2004. "Monetary policy and stock prices: theory and evidence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 513, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Ali Kutan & Tansu Aksoy, 2003. "Public Information Arrival and the Fisher Effect in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Stock and Bond Markets in Turkey," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 225-239, June.
    17. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Reilly, Gerard O., 2010. "Monetary policy surprises and international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 988-1002, October.

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