Credit market imperfections have been blamed for the depth and persistence of the Great Depression in the US. Could similar mechanisms have played a role in ending the East Asian miracle? After a brief account of the nature of the recent crises, we use Kiyotaki and Moore’s (1997) model of highly levered credit-constrained firms to explore this question. As applied to land-holding property companies, it predicts greatly amplified responses to financial shocks – like the ending of the land price bubble or the fall of the exchange rate. The initial fall in asset values is followed by the ‘knock-on’ effects of the scramble for liquidity as companies sell land to satisfy their collateral requirements – causing land prices to fall further. This could lead to financial collapse where – like falling dominoes – prudent firms are brought down by imprudent firms. Key to avoiding collapse is the nature of financial stabilization policy; in a crisis, temporary financing can prevent illiquidity becoming insolvency and launching ‘lifeboats’ can do the same. But the vulnerability of financial systems, like those in East Asia, to short-term foreign currency exposure suggests that preventive measures are also required.
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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number
1866.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Capital and Ownership Structure G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997.
"Credit Cycles,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
Other versions:
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995.
"Credit Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, .
"Credit Cycles,"
Discussion Papers
1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1998.
"Financial Contagion,"
Working Papers
98-33, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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