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Bank lending and commercial property cycles: some cross-country evidence

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Author Info
E. Philip Davis (Brunel University)
Haibin Zhu

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Abstract

Motivated by the frequently observed link between commercial property price volatility and banking crises, this paper investigates at a macroeconomic level the determination of commercial property prices and the interaction between commercial property prices and bank lending. We develop a reduced-form theoretical model which suggests bank lending is closely related to commercial property prices and that commercial property can develop cycles given plausible assumptions, where the cycles are largely driven by the dynamic linkage between the commercial property sector, bank credit and the macroeconomy. Cross-country empirical analysis based on a sample of 17 developed economies, using a unique dataset collected by the BIS, confirms the model's predictions. An investigation of determinants of commercial property prices shows particularly strong links of credit to commercial property in the countries that experienced banking crises linked to property losses in 1985-95. Further studies of dynamic interaction suggest that commercial property prices are rather "autonomous", in that they tend to cause credit expansion, rather than excessive bank lending boosting property prices. In addition, GDP has an important influence on both commercial property prices and bank credit. The work has implications for risk management and prudential supervision.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 150.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:150

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Related research
Keywords: commercial property prices; bank credit; time series analysis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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  1. E Philip Davis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "Commercial property prices and bank performance," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 04-19, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2007. "The Interaction between Mortgage Financing and Housing Prices in Greece," Working Papers 58, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jesus, Saurina & Gabriel, Jimenez, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," MPRA Paper 718, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fitzpatrick, Trevor & McQuinn, Kieran, 2004. "House Prices and Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence for Ireland," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/04, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2005. "Credit cycles, credit risk, and prudential regulation," Banco de España Working Papers 0531, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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