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Credit risk and disaster risk

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  • Francois Gourio

Abstract

Credit spreads are large, volatile and countercyclical, and recent empirical work suggests that risk premia, not expected credit losses, are responsible for these features. Building on the idea that corporate debt, while safe in ordinary recessions, is exposed to economic depressions, this paper embeds a trade-off theory of capital structure into a real business cycle model with a small, exogenously time-varying risk of economic disaster. The model replicates the level, volatility and cyclicality of credit spreads, and variation in the corporate bond risk premium amplifies macroeconomic fluctuations in investment, employment and GDP.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-2012-07.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2012-07

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Keywords: Risk - Mathematical models ; Credit ; Debt;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Dynamic Dispersed Information and the Credit Spread Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 19788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sylvain, Serginio, 2014. "Does Human Capital Risk Explain The Value Premium Puzzle?," MPRA Paper 54551, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakos, 2014. "Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications for Consumptions and Asset Prices," CEU Working Papers 2014_2, Department of Economics, Central European University.
  4. Martin Schneider & Cosmin Ilut & Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle," 2013 Meeting Papers 202, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Jianjun Miao & PENGFEI WANG, 2010. "Credit Risk and Business Cycles," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2010-033, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  6. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa, 2012. "Rare Macroeconomic Disasters," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 83-109, 07.
  7. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Working Papers 19469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Eric Swanson, 2013. "Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia," 2013 Meeting Papers 1137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "Risk aversion, risk premia, and the labor margin with generalized recursive preferences," Working Paper Series 2012-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Zheng Liu & Sylvain Leduc, 2013. "Uncertainty Shocks Are Aggregate Demand Shocks," 2013 Meeting Papers 270, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Peter Christoffersen & Du Du & Redouane Elkamhi, 2013. "Rare Disasters and Credit Market Puzzles," CREATES Research Papers 2013-45, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  12. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakos, 2014. "Learning about Disaster Risk: Joint Implications for Consumption and Asset Prices," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp507, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  13. Grammig, Joachim & Sönksen, Jantje, 2014. "Consumption-based asset pricing with rare disaster risk," CFR Working Papers 14-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

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