The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets
AbstractTransactions prices of S&P 500 futures options over 1985-87 are examined for evidence of expectations prior to October 1987 of an impending stock market crash. First, it is shown that out-of-the-money puts became unusually expensive during the year preceding the crash. Second, a model is derived for pricing American options on jump-diffusion processes with systematic jump risk. The jump-diffusion parameters implicit in options prices indicate that a crash was expected and that implicit distributions were negatively skewed during October 1986 to August 1987. Both approaches indicate no strong crash fears during the 2 months immediately preceding the crash. Copyright 1991 by American Finance Association.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.
Volume (Year): 46 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
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by Brandon Keim in Wired Science on 2009-09-02 17:48:33
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