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Explaining Asset Bubbles in Japan

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Author Info
Takatoshi Ito
Tokuo Iwaisako

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Abstract

This paper examines the stock and land price behaviors during the bubble economy period (the second half of the 1980s), paying considerable attention to the linkage of the two markets and the effects of monetary policy. In particular, we examine whether the booms in these asset prices can be justified by changes of the fundamental economic variables such as the interest rates or the growth of the real economy. A complex chain of events is needed to explain the process of asset price inflation and deflation. Our empirical results suggest (i) that the initial increases of asset prices are sown by a sharp increase in bank lending to real estate; (ii) that a considerable comovement between stock and land prices is consistent with a theory that emphasizes the relationship between the collateral value of land and cash flow for constrained firms; (iii) that although the real economy was doing well and the interest rates were still low, asset price increases from mid-1987 to mid-1989 cannot be fully justified by the movement of fundamentals alone; and (iv) the stock price increase in the second half of 1989 and the land price increase in 1990 is not explained by any asset pricing model based on fundamentals or rational bubbles.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5358.

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Date of creation: Nov 1995
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5358

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E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Kenneth D. West, 1988. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 2067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Stein, Jeremy C, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. " New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Marsh, Terry A. & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Dividend variability and variance bounds tests for the rationality of stock market prices," Working papers 1584-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1988-1), pages 141-206. [Downloadable!]
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  8. John Y. Campbell, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
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  10. Ueda, Kazuo, 1990. "Are Japanese stock prices too high?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 351-370, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Sachs, Jeffrey & Boone, Peter, 1988. "Japanese structural adjustment and the balance of payments," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 286-327, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jeffrey Sachs & Peter Boone, 1988. "Japanese Structural Adjustment and the Balance of Payments," NBER Working Papers 2614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Hoshi, Takeo & Kashyap, Anil & Scharfstein, David, 1991. "Corporate Structure, Liquidity, and Investment: Evidence from Japanese Industrial Groups," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 33-60, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Summers, Lawrence H, 1991. " The Scientific Illusion in Empirical Macroeconomics," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 93(2), pages 129-48.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Adam S. Posen, 2003. "It Takes More than a Bubble to Become Japan," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP03-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Oxelheim, Lars & Randøy, Trond & Stonehill, Arthur, 2001. "On the Treatment of Finance-Specific Factors Within the OLI Paradigm," Working Paper Series 554, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Lynn Elaine Browne & Rebecca Hellerstein & Jane Sneddon Little, 1998. "Inflation, asset markets, and economic stabilization: lessons from Asia," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-32. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2003. "Asset Price Fluctuations in Japan: 1980-2000," Working Papers 2003-25, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Takatoshi Ito, 1999. "Capital Flows in Asia," NBER Working Papers 7134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Kohei Aono & Tokuo Iwaisako, 2008. "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio, Real Estate Wealth, and the Japanese Stock Market," Discussion Paper Series a504, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Fukujyu Yamazaki & Takako Idee & Toshiaki Watanabe, 1999. "Distortionary Taxation, Excessive Price Sensitivity, and Japanese Land Prices," NBER Working Papers 7254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Raphael Bergoeing & Felipe Morandé & Raimundo Soto., . "Asset prices in Chile: facts and fads," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv115, Ilades-Georgetown University, School of Economics and Bussines. [Downloadable!]
  10. S. Elwood & Ehsan Ahmed & J. Rosser, 1999. "State-space estimation of rational bubbles in the Yen/Deutsche Mark exchange rate," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 317-331, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. H. Herwartz & H. Reimers, . "Empirical modeling of the DEM/USD and DEM/JPY foreign exchange rate: Structural shifts in GARCH-models and their implications," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-83, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  12. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish house prices: will the roof fall in?," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n890699, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  13. Qin Xiao & Randolph Gee Kwang Tan, 2006. "Markov-switching Unit Root Test: A study of the Property Price Bubbles in Hong Kong and Seoul," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0602, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre. [Downloadable!]
  14. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362. [Downloadable!]
  15. Wei Li, 2008. "Property tax and speculative bubble: An empirical analysis of Tianjin," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 627-643, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Goyal, Vidhan K. & Yamada, Takeshi, 2002. "Asset Price Shocks, Financial Constraints, and Investment: Evidence from Japan," CEI Working Paper Series 2002-11, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Shinhua Liu, 2007. "Securities Transaction Tax and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Japanese Experience," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 161-176, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Working Papers 10878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Alpanda, Sami, 2007. "The Boom-Bust Cycle in Japanese Asset Prices," MPRA Paper 5895, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  20. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "The rise in Dublin city house prices: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n920799, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  21. Qin Xiao & Randolph Gee Kwang Tan, 2006. "Signal Extraction with Kalman Filter: A Study of the Hong Kong Property Price Bubbles," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0601, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre. [Downloadable!]
  22. Maroney, Neal C. & Naka, Atsuyuki, 2003. "Diversification benefit of Japanese real estate over the last four decades," Working Papers 2003-01, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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