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Efficiency of the Tokyo Housing Market

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  • Takatoshi Ito
  • Keiko Nosse Hirono

Abstract

In analyzing the dynamics of Tokyo housing price, we have compiled annual micro data sets from individual listings in a widely-circulated real estate advertising magazine. A data set compiled from "properties for investment" lists both asking (sales) prices and rents for the same properties. With such data, a price-rent ratio is directly observable and expected capital gains before tax and commissions found to be just less than 90% in ten years. The "repeatedly-listed properties for investment" data set, a subset of the first, contains only those units in the same buildings after a one-year interval. In this data set, price, rent, and ex post capital gains are all observable. They are used to show that ex post returns on housing investment in the last four years were actually rather modest. The data sets for "housing for sale" and "housing for rent" sections were separately used for hedonic regressions, from which we constructed hedonic price and rent indexes. These regressions show the effects of various determinants of housing prices and rents. The time (year) dummy variables in the hedonic regressions give estimates of price and rent increases in the last 11 years in Tokyo. According to these estimates, prices increased 85-90% over the 1981-92 period, while rents increased about 65%. The price-(annual) rent ratio rents appears to have fluctuated between 17 and 32. Finally, the weak-form efficiency of excess returns on housing is rejected. However, the conclusion is tentative considering the short sample.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4382.

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Date of creation: Jun 1994
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Publication status: published as Bank of Japan Monetary and Economic Studies, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 1-32 July 1993
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4382

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  1. Takatoshi Ito, 1991. "The Japanese Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262090295, December.
  2. Ernst R. Berndt & Zvi Griliches, 1993. "Price Indexes for Microcomputers: An Exploratory Study," NBER Chapters, in: Price Measurements and Their Uses, pages 63-100 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 3368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Robert Gillingham, 1975. "Place to Place Rent Comparisons," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 4, number 1, pages 153-178 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Thomas A. Barthold & Takatoshi Ito, 1991. "Bequest Taxes and Accumulation of Household Wealth: U.S.-Japan Comparison," Discussion Paper Series a233, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  6. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
  7. Ito Takatoshi, 1993. "The Land/Housing Problem in Japan: A Macroeconomic Approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, March.
  8. Hayashi, Fumio & Ito, Takatoshi & Slemrod, Joel, 1988. "Housing finance imperfections, taxation, and private saving: A comparative simulation analysis of the United States and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 215-238, September.
  9. Linneman, Peter, 1986. "An empirical test of the efficiency of the housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 140-154, September.
  10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  11. Hendershott, Patric H. & Cheng Hu, Sheng, 1981. "Inflation and extraordinary returns on owner-occupied housing: Some implications for capital allocation and productivity growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 177-203.
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Cited by:
  1. Kenny, Geoff, 1998. "The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
  2. Shiller, Robert J & Weiss, Allan N, 1999. "Home Equity Insurance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 21-47, July.
  3. Daniele Checchi, 1999. "Inequality in Incomes and Access to Education. A Cross-Country Analysis (1960-90)," Working Papers 21, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised May 1999.
  4. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish house prices: will the roof fall in?," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n890699, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  5. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 1999. "Measurement errors in Japanese Consumer Price Index," Working Paper Series WP-99-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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