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To give or not to give: bequest estimate and wealth impact based on a CGE model with realistic demography in Japan

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Author Info

  • Miguel Sánchez Romero

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Naohiro Ogawa
  • Rikiya Matsukura

Abstract

In Japan due to the rapid population aging and its large financial pressure on pay-as-you-go retirement systems, the economic impact of bequest wealth has been drawing a tremendous amount of attention. Despite that, there are neither official statistics on bequest for the whole population, nor analyses of the historical evolution of bequest. Our study fills this gap by offering an estimate of bequest in Japan from 1850 to 2100, based on a computable general equilibrium model with realistic demography. Our model shows that the historical evolution of the bequest-to-output ratio in Japan follows the same U-shaped pattern described by Piketty (2011) for France. Moreover, we estimate that the annual flow of bequest represented between 4% and 6% of the output in the year 2000 and that it will reach between 7% and 13% of the output by year 2100.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2013-012.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2013-012

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Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

Related research

Keywords: Japan; economic demography; inheritance; mortality;

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