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The Saving Rate in Japan: Why It Has Fallen and Why It Will Remain Low

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Author Info
R. Anton Braun (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
Daisuke Ikeda (Northwestern University and Bank of Japan)
Douglas H. Joines (Department of Finance and Business Economics, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California)
Abstract

During the 1990s, Japan began experiencing demographic changes that are larger and more rapid than in other OECD countries. These demographic changes will become even more pronounced in future years. We are interested in understanding the role of lower fertility rates and aging for the evolution of Japan's saving rate. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the response of the national saving rate to changes in demographics and total factor productivity. In our model aging accounts for 2 to 3 percentage points of the 9 percent decline in the Japanese national saving rate between 1990 and 2000 and persistently depresses Japan's national saving rate in future years.

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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-535.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2007cf535

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  1. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2004. "Happy News from the Dismal Science: Reassessing the Japanese Fiscal Policy and Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 10988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hayashi, Fumio & Ito, Takatoshi & Slemrod, Joel, 1988. "Housing finance imperfections, taxation, and private saving: A comparative simulation analysis of the United States and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 215-238, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Selo Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen & Ayse Imrohoroglu, 2005. "Japanese Saving Rate," 2005 Meeting Papers 747, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Guvenen, Fatih, 2006. "Reconciling conflicting evidence on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution: A macroeconomic perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1451-1472, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2001. "Population Changes and Capital Accumulation: The Aging of the Baby Boom," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 1(advances/), pages 1008-1008. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hayashi, Fumio, 1995. "Is the Japanese Extended Family Altruistically Linked? A Test Based on Engel Curves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 661-74, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2005. "Saving and Interest Rates in Japan: Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-328, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kaiji Chen & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Selahattin İmrohoroğlu, 2006. "The Japanese Saving Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1850-1858, December.
  10. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda, 2005. "Saving and Interest Rates in Japan:Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low," 2005 Meeting Papers 625, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1989. "Understanding Japan's saving rate: the reconstruction hypothesis," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 10-25. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 293-316, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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