Saving and interest rates in Japan: why they have fallen and why they will remain low
AbstractThis paper quantifies the role of alternative shocks in accounting for the recent declines in Japanese saving rates and interest rates and provides some projections about their future course. We consider three distinct sources of variation in saving rates and real interest rates: changes in fertility rates, changes in survival rates, and changes in technology. The empirical relevance of these factors is explored using a computable dynamic OLG model. We find that the combined effects of demographics and slower total factor productivity growth successfully explain both the levels and the magnitudes of the declines in the saving rate and the after-tax real interest rate during the 1990s. Model simulations indicate that the Japanese savings puzzle is over.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2006-39.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- R.Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2006. "Saving and interest rates in Japan: Why they have fallen and why they will remain low," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2005. "Saving and Interest Rates in Japan: Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low," CARF F-Series CARF-F-028, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2005. "Saving and Interest Rates in Japan: Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-328, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda, 2005. "Saving and Interest Rates in Japan:Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low," 2005 Meeting Papers 625, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Charles Yuji Horioka & Hideki Fujisaki & Wako Watanabe & Takatsugu Kouno, 2000.
"Are Americans More Altruistic than the Japanese? A U.S.-Japan Comparison of Saving and Bequest Motives,"
NBER Working Papers
7463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- C. Y. Horioka & H. Fujisaki & W. Watanabe & T. Kouno, 2000. "Are Americans More Altruistic than the Japanese? A U.S.-Japan Comparison of Saving and Bequest Motives," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31.
- Selo Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen & Ayse Imrohoroglu, 2005.
"Japanese Saving Rate,"
2005 Meeting Papers
747, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Horioka, C.Y., 1993.
"Is Japan's Household Saving Rate Really High?,"
ISER Discussion Paper
0308, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Hayashi, Fumio & Ito, Takatoshi & Slemrod, Joel, 1988. "Housing finance imperfections, taxation, and private saving: A comparative simulation analysis of the United States and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 215-238, September.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1995.
"Is the Japanese Extended Family Altruistically Linked? A Test based on Engel Curves,"
NBER Working Papers
5033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hayashi, Fumio, 1995. "Is the Japanese Extended Family Altruistically Linked? A Test Based on Engel Curves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 661-74, June.
- Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2006. "The Japanese Saving Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1850-1858, December.
- Hansen, G D, 1993.
"The Cyclical and Secular Behaviour of the Labour Input: Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 71-80, Jan.-Marc.
- Hansen, G.D., 1991. "The Cyclical and Secular Behavior of the Labor Input : Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked," Papers 36, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Iscan, Talan B., 2011. "Productivity growth and the U.S. saving rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 501-514, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.