Saving and interest rates in Japan: why they have fallen and why they will remain low
AbstractThis paper quantifies the role of alternative shocks in accounting for the recent declines in Japanese saving rates and interest rates and provides some projections about their future course. We consider three distinct sources of variation in saving rates and real interest rates: changes in fertility rates, changes in survival rates, and changes in technology. The empirical relevance of these factors is explored using a computable dynamic OLG model. We find that the combined effects of demographics and slower total factor productivity growth successfully explain both the levels and the magnitudes of the declines in the saving rate and the after-tax real interest rate during the 1990s. Model simulations indicate that the Japanese savings puzzle is over.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2006-39.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- R.Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2006. "Saving and interest rates in Japan: Why they have fallen and why they will remain low," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2005. "Saving and Interest Rates in Japan: Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low," CARF F-Series CARF-F-028, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda, 2005. "Saving and Interest Rates in Japan:Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low," 2005 Meeting Papers 625, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2005. "Saving and Interest Rates in Japan: Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-328, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
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