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Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan

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This paper examines the effects of the demographic change and the government debt policy in Japan on economic growth and economic welfare, particularly by taking into account the existing public pension scheme as well as national medical expenditure through the existing public health insurance, where a computable overlapping generations model is used within a general equilibrium context. One of the main results of this paper is that the tax burden (GDP) ratio will increase up to about 36%, and the social security burden (GDP) ratio will increase up to 23.3% in 2050, even though the government tries to have a positive primary balance by 2010. The ratio of public health insurance benefits to GDP is expected to increase at 1% every 10 years, and the ratio will be around 9.6% in 2050. The 2004 public pension reform will successfully result in a 13 point decrease in the contribution rate from 36.44% to 23.53%, and reduce the social security burden (GDP) ratio by about 8 points from 23.27% to 15.02% in 2050, compared with the benchmark case.

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File URL: http://www.iuj.ac.jp/workingpapers/index.cfm?File=EMS_2006_11.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Institute, International University of Japan in its series Working Papers with number EMS_2006_11.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2006_11

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Keywords: Words: Government Deficits; An aging Population; Public Pension Scheme; Public Health Insurance; Intergenerational Redistribution; Overlapping Generations Model; Simulation;

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  1. James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Uwe E. Reinhardt, 2000. "Health Care for the Aging Baby Boom: Lessons from Abroad," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 71-83, Spring.
  3. Fumio Hayashi, 1995. "Is the Japanese Extended Family Altruistically Linked? A Test based on Engel Curves," NBER Working Papers 5033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark Warshawsky, 1988. "Annuity Prices and Saving Behavior in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions in the U.S. Economy, pages 53-84 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2004. "Happy News from the Dismal Science: Reassessing the Japanese Fiscal Policy and Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 10988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2000. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Working Papers 607, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. Horioka, C.Y. & Watanabe, W., 1996. "Why Do People Save? A Micro-Analysis of Motives for Household Saving in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0412, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  8. Kato, Ryuta, 1998. "Transition to an Aging Japan: Public Pension, Savings, and Capital Taxation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 204-231, September.
  9. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark Warshawsky, 1990. "The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests," NBER Working Papers 1682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark Warshawsky, 1988. "Annuity Prices and Saving Behavior in the United States," NBER Working Papers 1683, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Friedman, Benjamin M & Warshawsky, Mark J, 1990. "The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 135-54, February.
  12. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  13. Kato, Ryuta Ray, 2002. "Government Deficit, Public Investment, and Public Capital in the Transition to an Aging Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 462-491, December.
  14. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Data Appendix to The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Technical Appendices hayashi02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  15. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Masaya Sakuragawa & Kaoru Hosono, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability Of Japan: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 517-537, December.
  2. AFM Mohiuddin & Ryuta Ray Kato, 2009. "Trade Liberalization of the Fishery Industry of Japan," Working Papers EMS_2009_10, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
  3. Toshihiro Ihori & Ryuta Ray Kato & Masumi Kawade & Shun-ichiro Bessho, 2009. "Spousal Tax Deduction, Social Security System and the Labor Supply of Japanese Married Women," Working Papers EMS_2009_15, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
  4. Real Arai & Junji Ueda, 2012. "A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan," KIER Working Papers 823, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Shimasawa, Manabu & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2010. "Impact of immigration on the Japanese economy: A multi-country simulation model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 586-602, December.
  6. Muto, Ichiro & Oda, Takemasa & Sudo, Nao, 2012. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," MPRA Paper 42550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Ryuta Ray Kato, 2010. "Tax and Subsidy Policies for the Medical Service Sector and the Pharmaceutical Industry: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers EMS_2010_19, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
  8. Akira Okamoto, 2013. "Simulating Public Pension Reforms in an Aging Japan: Welfare Analysis with LSRA Transfers," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 597-632, September.

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