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Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan

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Abstract

This paper examines the effects of the demographic change and the government debt policy in Japan on economic growth and economic welfare, particularly by taking into account the existing public pension scheme as well as national medical expenditure through the existing public health insurance, where a computable overlapping generations model is used within a general equilibrium context. One of the main results of this paper is that the tax burden (GDP) ratio will increase up to about 36%, and the social security burden (GDP) ratio will increase up to 23.3% in 2050, even though the government tries to have a positive primary balance by 2010. The ratio of public health insurance benefits to GDP is expected to increase at 1% every 10 years, and the ratio will be around 9.6% in 2050. The 2004 public pension reform will successfully result in a 13 point decrease in the contribution rate from 36.44% to 23.53%, and reduce the social security burden (GDP) ratio by about 8 points from 23.27% to 15.02% in 2050, compared with the benchmark case.

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  • Toshihiro Ihori & Ryuta Ray Kato & Masumi Kawade & Shun-ichiro Bessho, 2006. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan," Working Papers EMS_2006_11, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2006_11
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Dreger, 2017. "Long-term growth perspectives in Japan and the Euro area," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 363-375, December.
    2. Sagiri Kitao, 2017. "When do we Start? Pension reform in ageing Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(1), pages 26-47, March.
    3. Okamoto Akira, 2020. "Childcare Allowances and Public Pensions: Welfare and Demographic Effects in an Aging Japan," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Toshihiro Ihori & Ryuta Ray Kato & Masumi Kawade & Shun-ichiro Bessho, 2009. "Spousal Tax Deduction, Social Security System and the Labor Supply of Japanese Married Women," Working Papers EMS_2009_15, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    5. Arai, Real & Ueda, Junji, 2013. "A numerical evaluation of the sustainable size of the primary deficit in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-75.
    6. Isaac Dadson & Ryuta Ray Kato, 2015. "Remittances and the Brain Drain in Ghana: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers EMS_2015_04, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    7. Akira Okamoto, 2013. "Simulating Public Pension Reforms in an Aging Japan: Welfare Analysis with LSRA Transfers," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 597-632, September.
    8. AFM Mohiuddin & Ryuta Ray Kato, 2009. "Trade Liberalization of the Fishery Industry of Japan," Working Papers EMS_2009_10, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    9. Sakuragawa, Masaya & Sakuragawa, Yukie, 2020. "Government fiscal projection and debt sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 408-442, August.
    11. Ryuta Ray Kato, 2010. "Tax and Subsidy Policies for the Medical Service Sector and the Pharmaceutical Industry: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers EMS_2010_19, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    12. Kato, Ryuta Ray, 2018. "The future prospect of the long-term care insurance in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-17.
    13. Shimasawa, Manabu & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2010. "Impact of immigration on the Japanese economy: A multi-country simulation model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 586-602, December.
    14. Kato, Ryuta Ray, 2022. "Population aging and labor mobility in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Xun Zheng & Tomio Miwa, 2019. "A Comparative Analysis on Residents’ Reservation Willingness for Bus Service Based on Option Price," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, January.
    16. Masaya Sakuragawa & Kaoru Hosono, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability Of Japan: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 517-537, December.
    17. Akira Okamoto, 2007. "Optimal Tax Combination in an Aging Japan," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 91-114.
    18. Okamoto, Akira, 2022. "Intergenerational earnings mobility and demographic dynamics: Welfare analysis of an aging Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 76-104.
    19. Ryuta Ray Kato, 2011. "The Impact of Marginal Tax Reforms on the Supply of Health Related Services in Japan," Working Papers EMS_2011_19, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    20. Okamoto, Akira, 2021. "Immigration policy and demographic dynamics: Welfare analysis of an aging Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    21. Kitao, Sagiri, 2015. "Fiscal cost of demographic transition in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-58.
    22. Tomomi Miyazaki & Kazuki Onji, 2017. "The Sustainability of Japan's Government Debt: A Review," Discussion Papers 1716, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    23. Isaac Dadson & Ryuta Ray Kato, 2015. "Remittances and the Redistributive Tax Policy in Ghana: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers EMS_2015_05, Research Institute, International University of Japan.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Words: Government Deficits; An aging Population; Public Pension Scheme; Public Health Insurance; Intergenerational Redistribution; Overlapping Generations Model; Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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