Saving and Interest Rates in Japan: Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low
AbstractThis paper quantifies the role of alternative shocks in accounting for the recent declines in Japanese saving rates and interest rates and provides some projections about their future course. We consider four distinct sources of variation in saving rates and real interest rates: changes in fertility rates, changes in survival rates, changes in technology and changes in uninsurable labor income risk. The emprical relevance of these factors is explored using a computable dynamic OLG model. We find that the combined effects of demographics and slower total factor productivity growth successfully explain both the levels and the magnitudes of the declines in the saving rate and the after-tax real interest rate during the 1990s. Model simulations indicate that the Japanese savings puzzle is over.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-328.
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2005
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- R.Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2006. "Saving and interest rates in Japan: Why they have fallen and why they will remain low," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2006. "Saving and interest rates in Japan: why they have fallen and why they will remain low," Working Paper Series 2006-39, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2005. "Saving and Interest Rates in Japan: Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low," CARF F-Series CARF-F-028, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda, 2005. "Saving and Interest Rates in Japan:Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low," 2005 Meeting Papers 625, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-04-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2005-04-03 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2005-04-03 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2005-04-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-SEA-2005-04-03 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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