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Financing Consumption in an Aging Japan: The Role of Foreign Capital Inflows in Immigration

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  • Robert Dekle

Abstract

We project the impact of demographic change on Japanese capital flows by simulating the impact of population aging on Japanese saving and investment rates. As aging depresses saving rates, in our baseline projections, we show that by 2015, foreign capital inflows will comprise about 15 percent of Japanese output. A distinguishing feature of this paper is that we compare the capital flows that occur without immigration to the capital inflows that would occur with immigration of 400,000 people annually. With the larger labor force from immigration and the larger induced capital accumulation, output will be 22 percent higher by 2020, and 50 percent higher by 2040. The higher output means that less capital needs to be imported; by 2015, Japan will be importing only 8 percent of its output.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10781.

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Date of creation: Sep 2004
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Publication status: published as Dekle, Robert. "Financing Consumption In An Aging Japan: The Role Of Foreign Capital Inflows And Immigration," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2004, v18(4,Dec), 506-527.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10781

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  1. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
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  18. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Yamamura, Eiji, 2011. "Frequency of contact with foreigners in a homogeneous society: perceived consequences of foreigner increases," MPRA Paper 33852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Shimasawa, Manabu & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2010. "Impact of immigration on the Japanese economy: A multi-country simulation model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 586-602, December.
  3. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2008. "Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 236-256, March.

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