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Financing Consumption in an Aging Japan: The Role of Foreign Capital Inflows in Immigration

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Author Info
Robert Dekle

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Abstract

We project the impact of demographic change on Japanese capital flows by simulating the impact of population aging on Japanese saving and investment rates. As aging depresses saving rates, in our baseline projections, we show that by 2015, foreign capital inflows will comprise about 15 percent of Japanese output. A distinguishing feature of this paper is that we compare the capital flows that occur without immigration to the capital inflows that would occur with immigration of 400,000 people annually. With the larger labor force from immigration and the larger induced capital accumulation, output will be 22 percent higher by 2020, and 50 percent higher by 2040. The higher output means that less capital needs to be imported; by 2015, Japan will be importing only 8 percent of its output.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10781.

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Date of creation: Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10781

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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  1. Horioka, C.Y., 1989. "The Determinants Of Japan'S Saving Rate: The Impact Of The Age Structure Of The Population And Other Factors," Papers 189, Osaka - Institute of Social and Economic Research.
  2. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Projected Population Aging In Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 90/5, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert Hagemann, 1989. "The Dynamics of an Aging Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 2797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  6. Robert Dekle & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Japan's High Saving Rate Reaffirmed," NBER Working Papers 3690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Noriyuki Takayama & Yukinobu Kitamura, 1999. "Lessons from Generational Accounting in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 171-175, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1995. "Is Japan's Household Saving Rate Really High?," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 373-97, December.
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  9. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Horioka, C.Y., 1991. "Saving in Japan," Papers 248, Osaka - Institute of Social and Economic Research.
  11. Nicoletta Batini & Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Richard H. Clarida, 1993. "International Capital Mobility, Public Investment and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1990. "Why is Japan's household saving rate so high? A literature survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-92, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1992. "Future trends in Japan's saving rate and the implications thereof for Japan's external imbalance," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 307-330, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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