Capital flows among the G-7 nations: a demographic perspective

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Capital flows among the G-7 nations: a demographic perspective

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Michael Feroli

Abstract

The standard life-cycle model of consumption behavior predicts that a household's age will influence its saving behavior. Moreover, simple national accounting identities reveal that a country's current account balance reflects its savings-investment imbalance. Thus, differences in national age-profiles should affect the current account. To test this theory's plausibility and significance, I simulate a multi-region overlapping generations model that is calibrated to match the demographic differences among the major industrialized countries over the past 50 years. In the model, it is found that these differences can explain some of the observed long-term capital movements in the G-7. In particular, the model does a good job of predicting the size and timing of American current account deficits as well as Japanese current account surpluses.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2003-54.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-54

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2004-01-18 (All new papers)
NEP-EEC-2004-01-18 (European Economics)
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repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
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Krüger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Return to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 5834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krüger, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," MEA discussion paper series 06103, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
- Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/18, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 12453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krüger, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," MEA discussion paper series 06103, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
- Ludwig, Alexander & Krüger, Dirk, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-11, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
- Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Luca, MARCHIORI, 2007. "ChinAfrica : How can the Sino-African cooperation be beneficial for Africa ?," UniversitÃ© catholique de Louvain, DÃ©partement des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2007014, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]

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