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Capital flows among the G-7 nations: a demographic perspective

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  • Michael Feroli
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    Abstract

    The standard life-cycle model of consumption behavior predicts that a household's age will influence its saving behavior. Moreover, simple national accounting identities reveal that a country's current account balance reflects its savings-investment imbalance. Thus, differences in national age-profiles should affect the current account. To test this theory's plausibility and significance, I simulate a multi-region overlapping generations model that is calibrated to match the demographic differences among the major industrialized countries over the past 50 years. In the model, it is found that these differences can explain some of the observed long-term capital movements in the G-7. In particular, the model does a good job of predicting the size and timing of American current account deficits as well as Japanese current account surpluses.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2003-54.

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    Date of creation: 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-54

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    Keywords: Capital movements - Group of Seven countries;

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    References

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    2. Weil, David N, 1994. "The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 55-81, February.
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    7. Dekle, Robert, 2000. "Demographic Destiny, Per-Capita Consumption, and the Japanese Saving-Investment Balance," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 46-60, Summer.
    8. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
    9. Giovanni L. Violante & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "The Demographic Transition in Closed and Open Economies: A Tale of Two Regions," Research Department Publications 4194, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Yuji Horioka, C., 1990. "Future Trends in Japan's Saving Rate and the Implications thereof for Japan's External Imbalance," ISER Discussion Paper 0239, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    11. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:
    1. Kazuhiko Oyamada & Ken Itakura, 2013. "Population Aging in the Interdependent Global Economy: A Computational Approach with an Overlapping Generations Model of Global Trade," EcoMod2013 5672, EcoMod.
    2. Michael Graff & Kam Ki Tang & Jie Zhang, 2008. "Demography, Financial Openness, National Savings and External Balance," KOF Working papers 08-194, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    3. Brahima Coulibaly & Jonathan Millar, 2008. "The Asian financial crisis, uphill flow of capital, and global imbalances: evidence from a micro study," International Finance Discussion Papers 942, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 12453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hiroyuki Ito & Ken Tabata, 2010. "The spillover effects of population aging, international capital flows, and welfare," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 665-702, March.
    6. Rose, Andrew K & Supaat, Saktiandi, 2007. "Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 6312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. David Backus & Thomas Cooley & Espen Henriksen, 2013. "Demography and Low Frequency Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 19465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Andrea Ferrero, 2007. "The long-run determinants of U.S. external imbalances," Staff Reports 295, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Ferrero, Andrea, 2010. "A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 478-490, May.
    10. Luca Marchiori, 2011. "Demographic Trends and International Capital Flows in an Integrated World," CREA Discussion Paper Series 11-05, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
    11. Luca, MARCHIORI, 2007. "ChinAfrica : How can the Sino-African cooperation be beneficial for Africa ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007014, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.

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